@NashvilletoTexas You brought up a real possibility, but I think the possible effect should be small because it is a one-state initiative and not a federal initiative. I think this impact, if it realizes, is also likely to concentrate at the lower salary range because I believe the newly incremental bachelor-degree graduates are largely those who initially would not want to pursue a college degree at all and those who initially could only afford a community college degree. These two groups of students tend to end up at the lower salary range and may introduce a suppressing effect only at this salary range.
This effect has been widely recognized in Taiwan; of course, the situation in NY is quite different from that in Taiwan. Taiwan increased its higher education capacity from about 10-20% high school graduates being able to enter a college 20 years ago to something like 95% today. When the supply of college graduates is too high, the real income for newly college graduates today is actually “much” lower than that 20 years ago.