To be blunt, anyone suggesting a hard rule as to GPAs clearly does not understand the complexity of the issue. There just isn’t enough standardization of curriculum and evaluation standards.
And even the most selective colleges will typically explain they do not require perfect grades. Now, they may want a bit of an explanation. Maybe it was a bit of a bumpy transition to ninth grade. Maybe you took some really challenging courses. But your secondary school having really challenging courses will support such an explanation.
Anyway, Navience data is potentially helpful in understanding what it looks like for your school, and an experienced counselor with access to such data is better still. Absent a really unusual amount of data you probably cannot be very definitive about chances, but if there are some recent precedents that are reasonably close to you, then that is evidence that there is a chance.