@NotVerySmart: Thanks. I take your point, but note that without real data it’s impossible to know how to compare Chicago EA v. Chicago regular. Given generic preferences, a student interested in HYPS is likely also interested in Chicago. That those students apply to HYPS removes them from the Chicago pool, so we know the available pool is weakened by that amount (sum of HYPS apps is about 15K). I wonder if Chicago dialed back early offers to strong candidates based on guesses about whether students would be ED losses. One doesn’t reveal what other schools one is applying to, but one also enters parents’ education data. So if Chicago sees that a candidate is a Columbia legacy, Chicago may defer, just to see how things turn out.
@JHS: I was hoping you’d join the fray at some point. Would offer that while Virginia and Michigan have ED competitors, it is probably an attenuated (or at least different) sort of competition. Both schools are inexpensive in-state and expensive for out-of-state students. Neither will be generous with financial aid for out-of-state candidates. So, the most direct ED competition they face would seem to be for in-state candidates or for out-of-state candidates who are fairly well off (can pay roughly private-level out-of-state bill without expectation of aid). Among the ostensible Top 30 group, it would seem that USC (offers no early program) and now Chicago (offers ED1, ED2, and non-restrictive EA) are the outliers.