Agree - the big merit money is from schools that don’t have the huge prestige but still offer a great education. We are firmly in the donut hole, and our kids’ options are settle for a school without the big name, or go in state, or to a neighboring state with tuition reciprocity.
It can’t hurt to apply for the merit at the bigger name schools, but it’s a total crapshoot.
And I definitely agree don’t apply ED unless you are prepared to pay full price.