We always book refundable hotel rooms as early as possible–usually just after we book the airfare. I then check to see if there are any price drops and will rebook the new rate and cancel the old, if so. In my experience, it’s about half and half whether that happens or not. Sometimes the hotel we have booked doesn’t drop but another one I have my eye on has, and I will switch hotels, too. For a large European city, I will sometimes even book a few different hotels at refundable rates and decide later based on what prices do.
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