<p>keemum,
once your d’s list is pretty well established, you might like to do the Stats Eval that the main CC site offers. Your d can include up to 10 colleges on the list, and the evaluation is done by Dave Berry based on a writing sample, stats, and ec’s. Application suggestions and suggestions for other schools to apply to are also listed in the evaluation reply. This will give you an outside opinion of whether your d’s list is too top heavy for (your) comfort. The schools my son was accepted at were ranks as match or safety for him, and the ones he was waitlisted at were ranked as reasonable reaches. I know that I lived in horror of steering my son wrong, so I know how you feel. </p>
<p>I do have one piece of advice - and that is to try to start the application process this summer. The applications - and any remaining tests - and senior year - are all very time consuming. If your d can get a jump start on essays and such, chances are better she will be able to submit many excellent applications - not just many applications. And good luck on the great adventure!</p>
<p>Kate, I didn’t mean to be tough… but I think Keemum’s formula could have the opposite effect, especially on the aspiring unhooked. Every year I run into an acquaintance or neighbor with a senior at our local public high school who is brimming with indignation that the Val was rejected from Harvard or Princeton. Do they know that there are at least 38,000 other Vals out there? They reel off the list of schools the kid applied to and become irate at the notion that if the kid couldn’t get into Princeton, at the very least, Brown or Hopkins should have been his back-up but alas, denied there as well. Kid didn’t get into Northwestern, his “safety”; his scores put him in the top top top of the pile there but alas, he’s heading to State U. which gave him merit money but where he doesn’t want to attend. He threw in a last minute application at Lehigh since someone told him it has Engineering, but since he never visited or requested a viewbook, Admissions thought he was just kidding or something.</p>
<p>It’s that kind of logic which is ridiculous. Our tennis playing Val who has X number of community service hours working in a homeless shelter with solid SAT scores has a greater chance of getting hit by lightening than getting into Princeton, which has never accepted a kid from our high school. Adding lots of schools with similar odds does nothing to increase the chance that this kid will end up in a school he wants to attend, even if his SAT’s are above the mean. Adding still more schools which haven’t been adequately researched justs compounds the misery… the longer the list, the kid figures, the greater the odds he’ll end up somewhere. We actually heard about a kid who got his admissions fee refunded because in his statement, “Why I want college X” he wrote about his prospective major… a department this college discontinued several years ago.</p>
<p>All the energy that’s spent trying to concoct a formula would be better spent actually learning about schools which don’t have such scary admissions stats and where your kid wants to attend. Bulking up the list with safeties your kid hates or hasn’t adequately researched doesn’t get the job done, even if the formula lets you sleep at night.</p>
<p>I agree with Blossom. On the application you are asked which other schools have you applied to and if a school sees 7 other Ivys—as disimilar as Columbia vs. say Dart. they can figure out what is going on. Schools are looking for a good fit as well. Better to stick to more standard “formula” and choose about 2-3 reaches, 2-3 matches, and 2-3 sure bets. Choose sure bets that have Honors or other Scholar programs within them so if your child chooses one of these he/she will be with students in a general range of academic accomplishments. Fit is so important so begin to get an idea of what matters to your child–large,small, urban vs rural, party/frat school vs “other” activity oriented.</p>
Thanks for the support. Anyone who dislikes the formula should just ignore it. I found it useful and wanted to share it with other parents who may be in my position, wondering how many schools to apply to. It’s a starting point, that’s all. </p>
<p>The formula is a tool. It does not in any way replace researching the schools one is interested in. It does not imply that one should choose safeties without any expectation that one will actually attend that school. Your college slate should consist only of schools where you think you would be happy.</p>
<p>"Kid didn’t get into Northwestern, his “safety”; his scores put him in the top top top of the pile there but alas, he’s heading to State U. "</p>
<p>Northwestern’s rejection rate in 2003 was at 67% - likely higher, now. A safety/match/reach analysis might place this kid in a match / safety category. However, if you look at a rejection rate analysis - and note the rejection rate of 2/3’s, you will see that this school not pulling its its weight as a ‘safety’ role of as a sure - or pretty sure bet.</p>
<p>Northwestern isn’t a wise safety for anyone, and neither is Grinnell. I’d have told Sarah Hughes to pick a safer safety than that, to say nothing of some random BWRK val! Either poor advising – or a family unwilling to listen to realistic advice – is usually to blame in these situations.</p>
Ah, I think I understand now … did I make it sound as though one should randomly choose safeties just to make the formula come out right? I totally agree with you. Don’t do that. Select your best matches first, then, if so inclined, use the formula to help narrow down to the final slate.</p>
<p>blossom, I think we’re mostly in agreement that the most selective schools are almost impossible to get into. For me, the formula actually emphasizes that viewpoint by showing that if you’re a non-hook typical applicant, then using mini’s estimates, the chance of getting rejected by HYPS is 80%. Most students on these forums don’t look at their chances this way. They think that because their stats are similar to the stats of someone who was admitted, then they’re practically in. It’s difficult, if not impossible, to determine whether one is a typical applicant but almost no one should assume that they’re better than average, regardless of how impressive their stats are.</p>
<p>I do think that when you’re considering the most selective schools, there is a degree of randomness in the college admissions process so your chances do go up slightly if you apply to more schools – unless it means you can’t produce a well-written application to every one.</p>
<p>Dogs, the problem with the traditional formula applied to a strong BWRK candidate, is that there statistically are no reaches (or matches, depending on how positive a thinker you are :)), therefore, there needs to be some other way to assess if a student has submitted enough applications to A) have the proper number of safeties, that is, enough to have a choice even if the bottom drops out and B) to have given the reach schools a reasonable shot.</p>
<p>My version of this is to put HYPS aside - send them an app and forget it, nothing you or anyone you know can do to change your odds of being admitted there or being struck by lightnin’, whichever comes first. Send in your safeties - early - I think some of these stories about people being rejected from rolling admit state schools have to do with apps not sent in in a timely manner or with admits to out-of-state, state schools.
Then take the 50-50 schools, and do as many apps as you feel you need to submit, in order to maximize your chances of getting into one of the schools that you feel is the best match for you. Jamimom wisely often points out the law of diminishing returns in this process - too many apps may mean that none are done well, and that no schools have been chosen with real care and concern about fit. Sending more apps to those 50-50 or 60-40 or even 70-30 schools is more likely to net you an acceptance, but if the school isn’t for you, or you can’t decide between 2 almost the same schools in April, what have you gained?</p>
<p>I think that cagel’s point about too many apps may diminish the time and care a student can put into them is important. While I agree that safeties are vital, for schools that don’t just go by the numbers, its important that the student really individualize his/her approach to each application. Common sense to me would dictate applying to around 8 schools–2-3 reaches, 2-3 targets, and 2 absolute safeties.</p>
<p>I’m late to the party on Keemun’s formula, but I like it. I’ve read the posts above about people misunderstanding it, or thinking that adding more safeties somehow raises the odds of getting into HYPS…that’s not what the formula conveys to me. It tells me, with some mathematical force, that:
HYPS is long odds for almost everybody, so apply if that’s important to you, then
Focus on your match schools, and understand that it’s not a match if they reject more than 50% of applicants…it’s a reach you don’t want to admit, and
Find safeties you love. Apply early. Show interest.</p>
<p>I did the same calculation that Keemun recommends with my S five months ago, and his reaction was to immediately begin looking for two more safeties that he could love. I liked that reaction!</p>
<p>I’ve always wondered about this. Frankly, the question rankles. It’s none of their business what other schools the applicant is applying to (unless it’s an ED situation). Do people tend to list all of the other schools, select just a few, or what?</p>
<p>Indeed, must the student answer this question? I certain wouldn’t tell one company what other companies I was interviewing with unless I was at the final stages of contract negotiations and was trying to get a better deal.</p>
<p>That’s what I advised my son to do: just select a few – one each reach/match/safety–in the same general ambience as the college being applied to. I never saw the question specify ALL the school so I don’t consider providing an incomplete list an untruth.</p>
<p>For the top tier of students, there are really only TWO categories: Sure Bets and Other. If the school does NOT guarantee admission for those with high enough credentials, then it CANNOT be a safety for anyone.</p>
<p>For the top tier of students, there are NO match schools. Until the Ivies hike their acceptance rates to 50%+, someone with an SAT of 1500 and a matching academic record cannot consider ANY school to be a real match. Harvard admissions are NOT a supercharged version of Ball State University’s admissions.</p>
<p>jhsu ~ don’t you mean that Harvard is not a match for any student (because it is always a reach)?</p>
<p>There are certainly match schools out there for a 1500 SAT student with matching academic records…the in-state honors program is likely to be one in most places.</p>
<p>Just another example of the power inequity that rankles me about ED. Be selective. List schools that are on the same “level” as that particular school - if it is a safety, only list one reach, or no reaches - I think the rationale for asking is mostly innocent on the part of the schools, it is probably more important that you show interest at safety schools, than sharing that you are applying to another more selective school. But, as DD would say - stick it to the man! Tell them only what oyou feel comfortable sharing.</p>
<p>I do not think this formula is working. For example, if your D acceptance rate into University A = 100%, and University B = 0%, she has 50% chance of getting accepted. But this is simply not true because her chance of getting accepted into University A = 100%!</p>
<p>My son just went through the admission game, got wait-listed at his first choice school and finally was offered admission there last week. So, I understand why you are worrying. I just do not think this formula works.</p>
Actually the formula does work in this case because the rejection rate for Univ A is 0% and rejection rate for Univ B is 100%. Multiplying together, 0.0 * 1.0 = 0% total rejection probability.</p>
Thanks for the advice, ohio</em>mom. We’re definitely going to start the campus visits this summer. D’s current list of colleges is spread out all over the country so we need to get started soon. D isn’t quite ready for the application process and I don’t want to rush her. We did have a discussion about tech schools vs. LAC vs. univ this week, which is the first time she’s initiated a discussion on colleges so I’m very encouraged. In the meantime, I will continue to do research by reading the college guides, college sites, and these discussion forums, which are very informative. I hope by next year D will be in charge of the app and research process.</p>