So what if you apply and don’t get in?
If you choose a reasonable number of schools and pace yourself through the application process (instead of saving everything for late December and January), then it doesn’t cost terribly much in terms of effort and expense to apply and potentially come out the other side with some interesting and maybe even life-changing choices to make.
Because the cost is relatively modest while the upside, for some, can be very high, then why not try?
If you’re asking about odds, it’s hard to say. Schools accept individuals and not statistics. There are far fewer open seats for incoming 11th graders than 10th. There’s no argument there. But the truth is, if you’re applying even as an incoming 10th and don’t have a compelling narrative to fit you into the school(s) that you’re applying to, then your odds will be extremely low. Very few students make it into “top” schools as an all-around great student.
As others have noted, when applying ask for the Admissions teams’ thoughts on the possibility of reclassing to repeat 10th grade. I agree that reclassing is a great option (if the cost isn’t a barrier), and the schools will give you honest and valuable feedback on the topic. You won’t be committed to applying for one grade or another until you submit your final application.
In the end, if you’re admitted to one or more schools, that’s when you ask the truly hard question: is it worth it to attend.