@1600mPenn, see the Krueger and Dale study. You can Google for it.
I would say (and so do they) that there are exceptions. If you are from a URM/disadvantaged background, for instance. I would also add: if you are the smart-but-lazy type, you’d get more second chances to reach your potential at an elite than at a large sink-or-swim state school.
Actually, if you are from a poor/disadvantaged background, one study said a directional full of commuters and folks already working full time may be better than a large flagship with lots of partying.
But if you’re smart, hard-working, driven, and from a middle-class or higher background, there’s usually no difference where you go to college. Maybe if you are aiming for MBB consulting or the Street, a target school is better, but even that is open to question.