I think you conceded too much here. For reasons subject to mathematical analysis, you actually can be too careful.
With respect to your actual choices, your chances at your originally listed match schools could, individually, reach ~60% or higher. As a group, they could be argued to be a collective low match.
The above dissenting opinion offered, I’d also recommend the University of Rochester, mostly because it nicely matches your criteria.
You might look into Swarthmore as well if you haven’t done so already.