Is real estate still booming in your neighborhood?

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<p>Sequim is too far from Seattle IMO to commute( its very pretty though)- but I would also say that the far bedroom suburbs were also too far-but many people don’t commute to Seattle anymore- I think the lake bridges see more traffic at afternoon rush hour going * to * Seattle* from* Redmond than to the east side, so jobs are really all over now- plus many jobs you can also telecommute at least one day a week.</p>

<p>But if you are looking for retirement- look to the San Juans too far to commute- but now is the time to buy there. </p>

<p>I think the market is hot all over- but especially in Seattle because of its natural boundaries with elliot bay- lake union and lake washington- seattle can’t spread out- and while density is increasing demand for practically anything is as well. The east side is able to absorb a little more because while they have the boundaries of the northcascades and lake Sammamish- there still are old farms to buy up and make developments out of, at least there was last time I looked.</p>

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<p>Yeah, natural boundaries are key for real estate. That’s why Manhattan supposedly has the most air-tight real-estate market in the world…</p>

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<p>We’ve been in a Seattle burb for 21 years. I used to tell friends NOT to move to the Seattle area because it was gray all the time and rained too much :smiley: Now I tell them to stay away because of the TRAFFIC! I went to college and lived in LA and H grew up in Bay Area and LA and it’s comparable to the traffic nightmares there. We love the PNW (have also lived in Portland) but H is fed up and really wants outta here when we make the next move. The problem is what city that has America’s Favorite Pasttime also has no traffic? Oh, and there’s that dilemma about where the kids end up (see backhandgrip’s thread).</p>

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<p>Maize&Blue, if your husband can transfer his love of professional baseball to college or minor league baseball he will have more choices. I want to see where my kids end up too and whether they will want to be near their parents. :)</p>

<p>What happens when your kids live far apart and nowhere close to where you are now?</p>

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<p>

Green Bay? ;)</p>

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<p>dstark: Already attend minor league games too - we have several generations of baseball genes and are fanatic (can follow all teams with our favorites, although the Dodgers will never find a place in H’s heart). H is a member of Society of American Baseball Researchers (SABR). Tacoma Raniers and Everett Aquasox are within 45 minutes (at the right time of day). S attends Appleton, WI games, a Mariner’s A-ball club and he can get to Milwaukee in less than an hour. But we don’t want to be so far from MLB that as we get older it get’s more of a hassle to get to a game. My Oakmont in-laws (avid Giants and 49er’s fans and former longtime season ticket holders) just don’t go anymore due to the hassles of getting there at their age. My FIL takes the ferry from Larkspur to the games - easy.</p>

<p>As for kids - both are currently within 4 hours of each of other in the upper midwest. I suspect S will settle down in MN or WI (serious gf from WI). Don’t know about D yet as she’s a soph in MN LAC and thinks she’ll go to grad school. Also have SIL in Minneapolis. So H considers MN a possibility, but I’m pretty reticent to leave the west coast and the mild climate, even though I like Minneapolis quite a bit. Home prices in Minneapolis and suburbs are also experiencing a boom.</p>

<p>fundingfather: No offense, but NFL just doesn’t appeal to us. College football is another story.</p>

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<p>I have a good friend that grew up in Minneapolis and he says he would divorce his wife if she ever moved moved back there. The weather is unbearable.</p>

<p>Oakmont is too far. My son used to take the Larkspur ferry until he got his driver’s license. Now he has to drive. :)</p>

<p>Does your husband like Bill James? He must like the guy who runs the Oakland A’s and was featured in “Moneyball”.</p>

<p>I don’t think I could handle the weather of Green Bay. I still remember that Dallas/Green Bay game in the mid 60’s. Great game.</p>

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<p>Hey, dstark:</p>

<p>As I am sure you are well aware, real estate in many coastal US markets has shot out of sight in the last few years. In the Maryland suburbs of DC, prices have doubled in the last 4 or 5 years in many neighborhoods, some may have experienced even greater appreciation. In Montgomery County, MD the average home is now selling for 660K. This, of course, has happened because of the lowest interest rates in decades coupled with incredibly relaxed borrowing standards. Interest only, no money down and ARM’s may eventually come back to haunt those who bought into their dreams with so little, placing themselves and their families at risk should the good times end. Lenders may also eventually suffer for their lack of standards at some point in the future should interest rates rise or unexpected unemployment change the current picture.</p>

<p>With college students, medical professionals and taxi cab drivers jumping into the real estate fray, there seems to be little difference between the “real estate always goes up” frenzy of today compared to the NASDAQ boom of the late '90’s. Then it was tech, today it is real estate.</p>

<p>California real estate has seen several bust and boom cycles over the years. So has Florida. It appears to me that a much larger section of both the East and West coasts may be involved in a similar cycle, fueled by low interest rates,even lower lending standards and an ocean of hot money looking for return on investment in what may be speculation, not investment.</p>

<p>I would not hazard a guess whether real estate will actually decline or if it will just level off in price for an extended period of time. However, I do believe we are very near the point were real estate is now unaffordable for many first time buyers, even with the “creative financing”. If so, a comparison of today’s real estate market to the NASDAQ frenzy of 1999-2000 may be in order. </p>

<p>As a famous industrialist taught us more than 7 decades ago, when the shoe shine boy is giving out stock tips, its time to sell.</p>

<p>By the way, I own a home in Florida that has appreciated approximately 50% in the last 18 months. Wanna buy it?</p>

<p>Best wishes to all.</p>

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<p>I don’t think the real estate market is as overvalued as Nasdaq stocks were. I know that people are using metrics like price to rents, but low interest rates and creative financing have changed the game. The refinancing craze really helped people. Also, the $250,000 capital gains tax free benefit and the lowering of the capital gains tax rate to 15% have increased the value of real estate.</p>

<p>There was a huge supply of stocks that came on the market at the top as investment houses kept shoveling more and more junk. Also, insiders were selling like crazy.</p>

<p>Inventories are still very low where I live. If prices are so out of line in Northern California, why isn’t there more inventory for sale?</p>

<p>In Florida during the 1920’s, people were so crazy they were buying land that was under water. As for today, I can’t talk about Florida. I don’t know Florida. </p>

<p>Real estate will run into some problems eventually, but remember, the Nasdaq went up 82% in a year.</p>

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<p>Little ole Eugene, Or. – Hot, Hot, Hot</p>

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<p>I should have bought last year. A $300,000 house in Eugene last year is how much today?</p>

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<p>I don’t know about residential real estate (except that my house too has nearly doubled in value) but a commercial real estate broker in Miami told me last week, exact quote “business is so hot it’s like a dream that I hope I never ever wake up from”</p>

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<p>well I just bought a near tear down, 1914 Craftsman bungalow for $260,000 and will have to put about $75,000 into to rehab it. But, it is next door to my house and in the U. area</p>

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<p>latetoschool, that is a pretty nice quote.</p>

<p>Concerneddad, I’m jealous. I like bungalows.</p>

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<p>Virginia (outside DC area) and North Carolina are still very reasonable and have lots to offer. Mountains, beaches, decent climate, history, bigtime college sports everywhere, and not much traffic. Also low COL and taxes. Just don’t plan on making big money either but what you bring will go twice as far.</p>

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<p>I was reading that Floridains are buying up North Carolina beach land. Untrue?</p>

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<p>Hi, dstark:</p>

<p>Agree with you that the overvaluation is not a good comparison and I tried to make that clear in my post. For clarity: I do not have a real estate crystal ball. I do, however, have a good view of history, economics and human nature. </p>

<p>The comparison I am trying to make is the widespread public interest in real estate “investing” is quite similar to the NASDAQ boom/bust. Or, the famous stock market crash of 1929. Its the madness of crowds. That is the comparison…the same attitude that existed then that “stocks always went up”. No, sometimes they don’t. </p>

<p>It could be that insiders in the nations largest homebuilders are wondering if the boom will continue. It was just reported today that insiders sold 26 times as much stock of their own companies as they bought this year, more than double the 11 to one margin last year. </p>

<p>I might also point out to potential real estate investors/speculators that Japans real estate market peaked two years after its stock market bubble burst and real estate in Japan has declined in price every year since…13 years…until this year. Again, I am not making a comparison of valuations or making predictions. Just pointing out that real estate can go down in perceived valuation, and can do it for a long time.</p>

<p>Please allow me to make additional comments on two statements made in this thread.</p>

<ol>
<li><p>“low interest rates and creative financing have changed the game”. For millions of American families, I am sure low interest rates will turn out to be a great blessing. However, I have my doubts about the so-called “creative financing”. There are people living in homes in my neighborhood who were only able to purchase by using very creative financing…interest only adjustable rate mortgages. Someday, I predict many of these families will not be able to afford their mortgage payments. So, they may have only changed the game temporarily. Mortgage money may not always be as easy to obtain as it is now. Though, I am not predicting that easy money will dry up in the immediate future. It will not. </p></li>
<li><p>“The refinancing craze really helped people”. It also has hurt many people by allowing them to turn their home into an ATM. Let me give you two anectdotal stories. First, you may have heard of the Philadelphia Eagles football fans who flocked to mortgage companies to refi their homes so they could buy $8k SuperBowl packages at Jacksonville. If memory serves me correctly, the Eagles lost that game. I am sure some of those refinancers who were in attendance had “buyers remorse”. Refinancing craze is right. Second, a mortgage broker friend of mine tells me that a large percentage of his business is repeat customers coming to take out their home equity, so they can squander it on vacations, Hummers, boats, etc. i don’t think that it is helpful to turn home equity into entertainment or a depreciating asset. I am not saying all people behaved in this manner, but enough have done so that it makes one question how some of our neighbors are going to fare if the economy were to turn sour, if the job market dry up, if interest rates were to increase substantially and, perhaps worst of all, that precious re-fi money become hard to obtain.</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Don’t get me wrong, I am a big believer in owning real estate. Very few investments can protect you from inflation the way real estate can. However, much of what is happening in real estate today is speculative and over-leverage, not investment. </p>

<p>Best to all.</p>

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<p>gnusasauras, all your facts are right and your opinions may come true.</p>

<p>I saw the report about the insider selling today and that is a warning flag.</p>

<p>For every home owner that went out and bought consumer goods with the refinanced money, I bet there are many more that lowered their payments or shortened the length of their loans. But I don’t know this for sure.</p>

<p>Prices are affected on the margin so if a few people do get in trouble prices can turn downward. </p>

<p>There building more condos in Miami right now than have been sold in what…10 years? I wonder how that is going to play out?</p>

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<p>Buy oil futures. ;)</p>

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<p>Dstark-- I’m very interested in this question too as last spring we jumped in and bought a house in the University Park area of Portland to hold as housing for our son and tenants while he’s at school there. Yes, the market was hot! Unnervingly hot. Everything would have several offers on it in a few days. The first house we looked at and made an offer on was bought by the father of a student from the Midwest, sight unseen, on his daughter’s say-so! Another place had been bought by a California investor. In fact, we heard several stories from the realtors and in the paper that Californians are going shopping in our area by way of their agents. I’m not scared of the bubble thing because we don’t need a huge price rise to feel we’re coming out ahead or at least breaking even in three or four years. But I’m watching the market very closely… like daily, on the computer, for that neighborhood! I’m not sure but it seems that houses aren’t being snapped up quite as fast. At the same time, the asking prices are creeping upwards. So, dstark, I keep asking myself, if this bubble is bursting, how will we know? What will be the first sign? In the meantime, I’m very pleased with the house we jumped on and feel confident others will agree when the time comes to sell.</p>