It’s all speculation and can’t be resolved.
Trump has been president for three application cycles, and Penn’s applications soared last year. In any case, I don’t know anyone who mentions Penn and Trump in the same breath. Trump was a development case, and most people don’t think that he is typical of Penn. We could say the same about Jared Kushner: his association caused a drop in applications at Harvard. Unlikely.
Bill Fitzsimmons said that the California wildfires might have affected early applications from that state.
By “most,” are you saying that more than 50% of Asian American applicants are from California? Is that true? In any case, Asian American applicants are smart enough to know that most highly selective institutions have a similar process, and the slant against such applicants is not limited to Harvard.