Neither I nor the knowledgable college counseling staff at my kids’ high school considered safety = 100% assurance of an acceptance. It doesn’t have to be that way. I agree with the affordability and happiness factor but those 2 elements should be present in any of the schools on the list - safety, match, and reach - IMO, or at least a shot that they will be affordable knowing you have the stats or financial need to qualify for merit or financial aid, respectively.