<p>Oh, I think things will get significantly “worse”. The election of Ahmadinejad was a direct response to 200,000 hostile U.S. troops who, as a result of armed invasions, are amassed on both of their major borders, with a sabre-rattler in DC who can’t get over the fact that the biggest U.S. foreign/military loss of the 20th Century took place there in 1979. People under siege mentality will often elect nasty folks. I think their current Pres., who I expect will not be around forever, manages to galvanize local opinion by spouting off with nasty crap. (I think the same of our current Pres. as well, though he is no longer so capable.) WHEN the U.S. cuts and runs, things will improve somewhat. </p>
<p>I do NOT have an optimistic view of Iran. Who they choose to govern, or how they govern, would never be my choice. And of course it isn’t the choice of my well-healed Iranian friends who made their fortunes as procurers for the Shah and his followers. That’s why they didn’t stay! But it is the Iranian people’s choice, and they have, under very difficult conditions, including war with a nasty opponent fought with chemical weapons at the urging of the United States, managed to exercise that choice through thick and thin - and with widely varying results, far wider than anything I’ve seen in the U.S. in the same time period. It’s more than can be said of those freedom-loving folks in Saudi Arabia (busy producing the Bin-Ladens of the world), or those Kuwaiti democracy lovers.</p>
<p>One thing I am clear about, though: if I were an average Iranian, and worried about the NEXT U.S. invasion, I’d want a nuclear weapon as quickly as I could get one. I think there is much greater worldwide risk from a U.S. invasion of Iran than from a Iranian nuclear weapon, if, in fact, (and not in theory), they are intent on producing one.</p>
<p>One thing that most folks don’t know about Iran (because their governmental system is different from ours) is that the loser in the 2005 presidential election, Rafsanjani, may actually have more power that Ahmadinejad. He is executive of something called the “Expediency Council”, appointed to decide all disputes between executive, legislative, and guardianship branches. Rafsanjani is a well-known moderate, yet appointed by the ayatollahs to the position (suggesting that the religious authorities are in fact somewhat more liberal than the current president.) Rafsanjani was prez from 1989-1997, oversaw the end of the Iran-Iraq War, and was a voice of moderation. However, he was the first Iranian pres to push for an Iranian nuclear weapon, based on his well-deserved mistrust of the U.S. following the Iran-Iraq War.</p>