Most sports will give likely letters. I would also ask the coach directly how many people that they offered a spot to got in. One coach said he didn’t know for sure until likely letters are sent. Another said in 6 years he had gotten admitted 100% of the guys he offered slots to. Obviously that is after getting a preread from admissions, he is only offering spots to guys he knows he can get in. He said he wouldn’t tell my son to apply early unless he was 100% sure he would be admitted. It seems like on most things if you ask the right questions the coaches will give honest answers.