<p>Yes, I have spelled out all these numbers in detail on earlier threads. 48% seems to be the magic number, since they all wish to avoid crossing the psychological 50% barrier on the ground that this would discourage RD applications.</p>
<p>If the poor RD schlumps only realized how heavily the odds are stacked against them vs the EA/ED applicants.</p>
<p>Something to watch is the fraction of total applicants who are EA/ED applicants.</p>
<p>If too many of the wise guys begin to catch on and early apps rise, the RD round will increasingly become the “losers round” - the repassage, as it were - consisting primarily of all those who were turned down or waitlisted at their 1st choice EA/ED!</p>