This is true had Emma bet everything she had on FJ, but she didn’t.
That isn’t correct. Remember, Emma had a $3200 lead over James going into the Final. James had $23,400. Had he bet everything, he would have had $46,800. Emma ended up with $46,801. He still would have lost by $1.
Do the math. Here it is.
Emma had $26,600 and bet $20,201. She won, ending up with $46,801.
James had $23,400. If he bet it all, he’d have ended up with $46,800. He still would not have won.
Now, suppose that Emma bet and lost. James had to make sure he beat the third place contestant if Emma missed and he missed. He bet so the third place contender could not overtake him.
It doesn’t matter whether James knew what Emma bet. There is no way he could have beaten her, given that she bet what she bet and she was correct.
Watson has already beaten Ken Jennings in Jeopardy.
And the Watson game wasn’t even close. Was interesting to watch for the novelty of it. I think it would be more interesting to have Ken and James play Brad Rutter (who has never lost a Jeopardy game which involved 3 human contestants – he was third in the Watson tournament). Could even mix in some other contestants from the past. But they had a similar tournament (battle of the decades or something like that) not that long ago. I am sure the producers are working on something. Could have at least a portion of the benefits go to pancreatic cancer research.
James didn’t bet to stay in 2nd. He bet to win if Emma got the question wrong which was the only circumstance under which he could win. I get annoyed when people in 2nd don’t wager correctly. James did.
“She used his strategy–practice on the buzzer beforehand, hunt for Daily Doubles, bet aggressively-- because it’s a winning strategy, not because she was copying him. Going forward, most players will use it, because it’s a winning strategy.”
James strategy may become more popular since he did so well with it. But I’m not so sure it will become the dominant strategy. James did not invent this strategy; he just played better than anyone has played it before. But in order to make this strategy work as well as it did for James Holzhauer you may first actually have to BE James Holzhauer and thus have his knowledge and reflexes. Roger Craig played a very similar strategy about 5 years ago. Roger held the biggest one day total record before James broke it. And Roger did great - won a bunch of games and won the TOC based on hunting for DDs and racking up big bucks with big bets. But Roger eventually sunk himself with his big bets. A classic case of live by the big bet and die by the big bet.
“Perhaps I had erroneously assumed that your FJ bet is not shared between players, that no one could see what the amount of your bet is.”
The FJ bets are not shared among the players, but it’s relatively easy in most cases to correctly anticipate what the others will bet based on their positions and their scores. People sometimes thwart that by making unorthodox bets, but in any given situation there is usually one optimal bet. So you look at your own position and score and make some assumptions about how your opponents will bet and then make your bet accordingly.
James bet correctly in FJ. He was essentially making the same bet as betting nothing. Since he is not leading, winning outright is out of his hands. He has to rely on betting big and Emma missing FJ. So he should then bet little or nothing to hold off Jay in third place and hang onto second place. Not to get the paltry $2000 second place prize but to hope that the win falls into his lap when and if Emma bets big.and misses FJ. Emma did bet big as James anticipated but she did not miss the clue. Hence, she is the new champion.
If James had foolishly bet big on FJ and it turned out to be a hard clue that he and Emma both missed, then Jay would likely have won from third place. But James bet to prevent that from ever happening with his modest bet. He made the best bet he could. It just didn’t work out for him.
Also, Emma may not have seen James play before, but she knew in advance that he had all those wins and nearly $2.4 million in winnings. So she very likely knew she was going to have to be very aggressive if she hoped to win.
Was on my flight back from Iceland and missed it. 
I had a feeling he’d lose while I was gone.
Oh, so its your fault. 
I don’t think Emma knew about his winnings much in advance. I think they told her when she arrived at the studio.
Maybe this question has already been answered, but how do we know that Emma hadn’t seen James play before? Wouldn’t some of his early rounds have aired on TV before this episode was filmed?
Last night’s episode was taped March 12. James’ first appearance was broadcast April 4.
Yesterday’s show was taped on March 12th. I believe that the first show with James as a contestant aired April 4th. So Emma could not have seen him play on a broadcast show.
Contestants are in the audience while the week on which they appear is being taped (so Tues, Wed, Thur and Fri contestants watch the Monday show being taped). So people who appeared on episodes aired later in the week would have seen James play. But Emma played on Monday so she would not have. I understand that some contestants hold over to the next week. But its my understanding those contestants are from California which Emma isn’t. I believe that the game in which James won by about $500, the contestant who almost beat him was a holdover from the prior week and thus saw him play more times.
“But its my understanding those contestants are from California which Emma isn’t. I believe that the game in which James won by about $500, the contestant who almost beat him was a holdover from the prior week and thus saw him play more times.”
The holdover contestants from southern California who have already sat through a day’s taping do not come back the following week. They come back months later. The 17 players who are scheduled to show up for any given taping day are set well in advance. I was one of those holdovers. I sat through a taping day without getting to play in July and then came back for my second taping day in which I got to play the following September.
But even though Emma had never seen him play, when she showed up at the studio and met James and was told that he had amassed over 30 wins and over two million dollars, I’m sure she pretty quickly concluded that he was an extraordinary champion and it was going to take an extraordinary strategy and performance on her part to beat him. I certainly would have concluded that. Once he started racking up the wins and the big bucks I’m sure all the new players concluded that, although they may have had different notions of what sort of extraordinary approach they should try. But Emma actually had the talent and the strategy to pull it off.
She also had been practicing at home with a buzzer, researching wagering techniques, immersing herself in trivia and did a thesis on trivia in graduate school. She was told he had 32 wins and over $2 million in winnings before she played him. I’m sure she realized she would have to be very aggressive to beat him and could immediately see how he was playing as soon as their game started. She was well prepared to be able to potentially beat him. It will be interesting to see how long her run goes .
I was traveling yesterday, so I was really bummed that I missed the show, especially since I hadn’t seen the last three or four games where James was getting closer and closer to beating Ken Jennings’ record. However, when I found out that the episode is streaming on YouTube until Friday, I watched it earlier today. What a great game! Emma had exactly what it took to beat James–a combination of trivia knowledge, buzzer skills, and luck in finding the Daily Doubles in Double Jeopardy (and also going all in on the first one). I was really impressed by everyone’s ability in this game. The fact that in both rounds they missed only one answer between the three of them was amazing!
Also, I was very touched by Alex’s reaction both to the get-well card that James’ daughter made for him and the fact that James lost. Alex sounded like he was choking up at the end. I really think he enjoyed having a player like James on what might be his last season of Jeopardy (obviously depending on his health).
Buzzy Cohen used the “start at the bottom” method but he didn’t do the “all in” betting. James was also very lucky in finding the DD’s.
There is no doubt some luck in finding daily doubles. But there is also an element of skill which results because only the person in control of the board can pick a daily double. If you answer 10 questions in a row correctly, you may not hit any daily double. And I can answer the 11th question right (as my only correct answer) and then select a daily double. However, if that ratio continues, you will be much more likely to find daily doubles.
And James was ringing in 1st on more than 50% of the questions and getting the vast majority of questions right (something in the neighborhood of 90% correct). Which made him more likely to get the daily doubles. Even yesterday he rang in first something like 40% of the time (more often than either of the other contestants) which should have put the odds in his favor for finding daily doubles. But like anytime you are playing the odds, sometimes even with them in your favor, you don’t win. Emma got 2 daily doubles (and the only one James got was the first selection of the day so he had no money and could only bet $1000) even though she controlled the board less often than James. That is the luck of the draw (though ultimately finding the daily doubles doesn’t mean anything if you get the questions wrong).
I’m glad that she won tonight. I would have found it incredibly disappointing if she had lost in the first game after beating James.