My parents had a typesetting business (I remember compugrsphic machines) that they sold when they could see the “word processing on the wall.” Then they opened a business selling personal computers (anyone remember Kaypro?).
It’s tough if you guess wrong about which doors are opening and which are closing though, and if you’re in a lot of debt from learning a skill that is no longer needed in this new economy…
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However, what matters for new entrants to the job market is whether those in a position to hire or set hiring policy (e.g. CEOs and other managers at employers) believe in AI’s ability to replace entry-level employees, regardless of whether AI can actually do so effectively.
I.e. even if AI is an overhyped business fad, belief in it can have significant impact on job prospects.
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You are arguing a point I wasn’t trying to make. Any uncertainty is bad which is why I said quality of education, school brand, prior internship experience will all be very important.
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Employers are using AI to interview and prospective employees are using AI to answer questions. Can this possibly work out for the companies trying to get the best candidate?
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This is very risky and opens companies up to legal problems. Many firms are trying to force applicant consent into the ATS workflows. Also, its a never ending arms race between AI-based resume optimization and interview cheating software (Cluely) vs. AI based recruiting software.
What worked for my older son who graduated in 2023 was hard work, flexibility and patience . He got a job at a grocery store chain in college and stayed with it during his unpaid internship in conservation. He never called out, was never late, was extremely flexible with hours and departments. In conversations with a manager she asked about his degree in biology and said there were opportunities to use it at the company. About three months later she told him about a new position that was being created and that he should apply. 8 weeks later he was promoted. It’s in no way the path he saw for himself, but he is very happy in his work. I think it’s important to understand that most graduates don’t start out making six figures in a dream job.
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This is the way.
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high level salespeople. AI is not going to replace positions where human interaction and relationships matter.
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I’d posit that this is long term going to change. I think younger generations actually don’t value the human interactions and relationships that older generations do. Current research on buying behavior shows that Boomers and GenX like their sales rep. Millenials and GenZ don’t value them as much. They’ve been born into doing research on their own and have adopted a full “don’t call me, I’ll call you” view point. If you agree with that research (which, of course, you don’t have to), then AI is ripe to challenge that status quo as boomers and GenX age out with buyers that want something different in their buying experience.
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Not when it comes to alcohol sales. 
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There are plenty of careers that use AI but will not be replaced by it. One issue is that not everybody wants those careers.
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Quant hiring likely peaked for the college class of 2023, based upon internships decided in the fall of their junior year (so fall 2021). I’d estimate it’s down about 40% from that peak, with AI playing a large role in why.
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These layoffs come amid a wider purge at Microsoft; SFGATE reported earlier this month that 122 Bay Area workers were laid off as part of a reported6,000-employee cut at the Redmond, Washington-based tech giant. (Microsoft’s CEO, Satya Nadella, said in April that up to 30% of the company’s code was written by artificial intelligence instead of human engineers, per TechCrunch.)
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/linkedin-layoffs-california-including-engineers-20351870.php
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How much of it do you think is due to the macro environment (interest rates etc.) vs. AI driven automation? I suspect unlike Big Tech Quant is probably a more clearly signal for automation driven slowdown.
This is a pretty obscure area of the job prospect landscape, so this will my last post about this. But I can think of two big reasons for the slowdown in hiring. First is AI and how it increases the efficiency of existing employees. Second is that many quant companies lost a lot of money during the crypto meltdowns of 2022 and 2023.
I wouldn’t be surprised if hiring ticks up a bit due to the immense profits from the TACO trades this year, but I don’t expect long-term growth.
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Smaller companies get some love, and I found this interesting:
“ A new study by Revelio found that five years into their careers, graduates had comparable salary progression, promotion timelines, and managerial prospects — regardless of the size of their first employer. However, people who started their careers at small companies were 1.5 times more likely to become founders of their own companies later in their careers.”
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One of my kids is starting a co-op in the fall with a software consulting firm. One of his friends is finishing up the co-op and received a return offer. He was told when he got the offer that they were only extending offers to co-op students which has not been their practice in the past. Another friend was caught up in the EY Parthenon delayed start fiasco. He is currently looking for another job. This has happened for the last several years with some of these consulting firms and the kids we know that have been affected have not waited for the delayed offer, but just found a different job which may be the point?
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Another interesting side effect that is playing out in the job market today is the impact of the 2017 Trump TCJA bill with the hidden time bomb buried in the law that changed the tax code for section 174 that went into affect in 2022 while no one was watching. Prior to this change, Section 174 allows companies to write off 100% of their research costs (high salaried white collar jobs in tech and research based industries) may have been the real driver for U.S dominance in the R&D space for last 70+ years and long term negative impacts of this are not yet fully realized.
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Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, was recently asked in an interview how a new graduate can get a job as a software engineer in the age of AI.
Here’s his answer…
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𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁:
Understanding things like SQL, data structures, and how software systems are built still matters, even when AI is doing more of the heavy lifting. -
𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗮 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗲𝗿:
AI can write code, but it still needs direction. Knowing how components fit together, like caching, staging layers, and data pipelines, makes you valuable. -
𝗗𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝗜:
AI tools like Copilot are powerful, but they’re not magic. The best engineers guide them with intention and understand what the code is actually doing. -
You don’t need to out-code everyone. You need to out-think the problem.
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How does one reconcile these good tips with recent layoffs?
“Of those, nearly 2,000 staff at its Redmond headquarters were affected – with a significant portion of those in software engineering roles.
This latest round of cuts also appears to disproportionately affect software engineers and developers, according to reports. Documents obtained by GeekWireshow 22% of the affected employees were in software engineering, equivalent to 67 workers.”