College students are 2-4 years behind the job market if they are choosing majors with the job market in mind, since they will graduate 2-4 years after having chosen their majors.
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It is robust in some sectors and weak (and getting weaker) in others. You really cannot state things like “definitely still robust”. Some organizations are hiring, some are not. Some are eyeing their labor costs (entry level, mid-level, senior level) very aggressively and taking advantage of retirements and natural turnover to trim without signaling “we are cutting back” and some are cutting quite publicly and are ignoring the optics- the business requires a leaner workforce, and that’s what they’re doing.
I don’t know anyone in corporate Talent Management who would describe the 'experienced job market" as “definitely still robust”. There are pockets within industries and sub-industries, and some functions, and some geographies, where there is need and companies are hiring. Not everywhere. And not until the forecasts around tariffs, taxes, weak vs. strong dollar, interest rates, etc. become less murky.
Most of corporate leadership right now was in midlevel or junior level during the financial crisis. They remember people being downsized a week after joining their company. They remember the hastily put together severance packages where the Total Rewards teams hadn’t even had time to add the boilerplate on “how to collect unemployment” and “here’s how to file for COBRA”.
Nobody in leadership wants to see that again. Getting hired, onboarded and fired in the same month? No.
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You are correct - I’ll clarify that to automotive and other heavy equipment - but I know people who have left one auto to another or to heavy equipment like Cat, Schneider Electric, etc. And not just one or two…some in sales, some in things like product planning or product marketing.
Absolutely. A friend of mine, highly experienced in the finance sector, got retrenched about 6 months ago and has gone no further than a couple of interviews in job seeking all that time. She could if she moved, but that involves uprooting a family - mobility is a lot easier for younger people with no kids and no spouse with their own career.
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But that’s also a choice - whether kids are in college or experienced, sometimes you have to move - even to stay with your own company. I’ve been through that a few times - but yes there are consequences but I don’t include that with the market is bad because there are jobs available, just not where you want it.
I’m in banking (having studied math) and it is definitely a more challenging market. So many goodbyes and those being cut are those with the most seniority. My employer is going through a massive reorg with a substantial volume of layoffs that is keeping me up at night, particularly given we just learned this week of significantly reduced financial aid for 25-26.
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Having one job offer if you move vs lost count of other applications that went nowhere is not a “robust” market.
I and other friends have also watched retrenchment hit hard elsewhere in the companies we work (also finance sector). No one is replacing those people. This is not a “robust” market.
The minimum wage sector seems robust though..
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Of course, if a married couple with two jobs now finds that one of them can only find a job if the other gives up their job (because they have to relocate), that is not a “robust” job market.
There may also be substantial costs to relocating. If they own a house, transaction costs around selling and buying can be large. If the new location has lower quality public schools, costs of private schools may be needed. If a kid is a senior in high school, college costs may be higher due to losing tuition residency in the old state but not being in the new state long enough to get tuition residency there.
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I said - in my industry - I clarified - people are getting bought out and resurfacing very quickly. I know many.
Those choosing to stay retired are being contacted as well.
I was shocked but it’s true.
Unemployment has barely crept up btw.
Unemployment is also a function of job seekers. Discouraged workers who are no longer looking for jobs reduce the denominator of the unemployment rate (as do those students who go to grad school because the jobs market is tough, which has been mentioned before, I don’t remember if this thread or another on here). Further, the rate itself doesn’t tell you anything about the quality of jobs. The underemployment rate has gone up about 1.2% over the last couple of years. This partly mirrors the increase in part time jobs, which has also gone up as a % of the total, and includes those involuntarily doing part time work because it’s all they can find.
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Job figures are historically manipulated of course. And the market likely hasn’t been as strong as we thought all these years.
But the data is the data. Jobless claims fell last week. That’s what we have.
Tariffs and TACO are playing a part. My car dealers sell to businesses and there’s uncertainty and business vehicle sales are down. .
But historically, it’s still good. My daughter’s friends who sought jobs have them, and her bf graduated last year ( a year early) in finance and said his friends are doing quite well.
I suspect in most cases school data will be softer but not dire. But we’ll find out when they report.
Of course for anyone who cannot find employment - the market is dire. But I do know people need to be flexible both location and duty wise and as we know from the past few years of entitled employees, not everyone is.
As an example of flexibility, my nephew is at a rural Midwest food company after working in the urban East. He said so few applied due to location (LinkedIn counts), that he knew he had good odds. And he gets paid bcuz of where he lives - they have to pay to attract. And they need more. He’s in accounting.
There is no question there are jobs. But one has to go to them. They are in different places than before or have different duties.
But again, like at any time, that matters little for those unsuccessful. To that person and rightfully so, the market stinks.
Yeah we could debate this forever with anecdotes from everyone’s kids but as often reminded, cc is not a debate society.
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I suspect we are inevitably going to see different anecdotes from different parts of the country. Partly because the market differs and partly because what people define as “robust” may differ too. For many years a “robust” job market in Silicon Valley meant that at second tier companies or outside of tech you’ll get hired if you can fog a mirror. Was that the case for people in the rust belt?
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Hi tsbna44, we’re in Canada, so he’s facing a somewhat different economic landscape than grads in the US. Hiring, especially for students and new grads, has been particularly challenging for the past few years for a number of reasons, and all employment sectors outside of health care and teaching are experiencing hiring slowdowns. The recent situation with regards to the trade negotiations between our two countries is just further exacerbating the situation.
Still he’s been casting a wide net and has a few prospects, and in the interim is getting some very good mentoring with regards to job searching, networking, his resume, and interviewing that is helping to build his soft skills. He was not able to secure an internship so lack of job experience is one of his challenges. He’s also working on starting up a small business to hopefully help with that. It’ll work out eventually I’m sure but it’s going to take some time. Fortunately we’re in a financial position to be able to continue to support him until he lands something.
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Purely anecdotal but college name recognitions and reputation and local alumni support seem to be more important of late as the market is tightening for recent graduates.
For example a kid in my local northeast community can’t find a job consistent with his communications degree from a huge southern school. People view the school as a classic cliche “sports” and “Greek” school with no local connections. He is for now basically stuck checking members in at the local gym. His brother who graduated a year earlier from an Ivy is working for a prominent consulting firm.
I typically try to avoid generalizations based on personal one off observations but for those that find them useful there you go.
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Agree that local alumni support, networks, matter. Have seen this with friends- kids got jobs thru the state university’s Handshake, even as alum, for business roles.
And have seen kids get internships thru family or friends of friends.
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Agree. Even in regular job markets, if a student is looking ahead to career prospects, especially that “first real job”, they have to recognize that their prospect will be better in the region of the college they choose if it does not have a national reputation when it comes to “Main Street” jobs. I think it would be shortsighted for a kid from the NE to choose a school in the deep south for the big time sports atmosphere or maybe slightly more merit, if they have no intention of settling in that part of the country and see themselves back in the NE. It can be done, but it is a much harder road. For most employers, hiring entry level positions is about finding good enough candidates efficiently who are less likely to turn over in a couple of years after you have trained them up.
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Yes- but.
For many employers (I won’t state most since clearly I don’t know the percentages) there is a solid understanding that entry level employees will likely represent a bell curve, performance-wise. So it’s not enough to find “good enough”. You also need to identify and hire the stand-out’s if you’re going to have a shot at that bell curve. Will every 23 year old who looks like a superstar after the interviewing turn into a superstar? Absolutely not. But you’ve got a better shot with him/her (statistically speaking) than you do with a cluster of “good enough’s”.
Turnover is a crazy thing. Sometimes you’ve got the weak performers who hear a poor performance review and say to themselves “I need Plan B”. Sometimes the weak performers hear that same review and think “I’m staying until they walk me out with my coffee mug and picture of my dog”. Etc.
All the forecasting and AI in the world won’t accurately predict who is going to stay and who is going to go. But it is much easier to retain a high performer than it is to get rid of a poor performer! So sure- some “good enoughs”. But also some potential stars!
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