Abizaid: “Cost in Blood and Treasure”
2nd Lt.: “The War is Lost”</p>
<p>Vice President Dick Cheney needs to talk to his generals more often. Michael Hedges of the Houston Chronicle reports that Gen. John Abizaid, who has recently consulted with US commanders in Iraq, said today that the guerrilla movement in Iraq is as strong now as it was 6 months ago. Dick Cheney recently said it was in its “last throes.” If so, the throes appear likely to go on for decades. Abizaid, however, conveyed an unrealistic impression that the Iraqi forces will take over the heavy lifting any time soon, and he continued to deny that the US needed more troops on the ground. CNN’s Jane Arraf reported on Wednesday from Anbar province that virtually no one among the Lt. Colonels and fighting troops on the ground in Iraq thinks they have enough boots on the ground.</p>
<p>Abizaid said,</p>
<pre><code>’ “The most important thing I saw this time is that there is increasing confidence in Iraqi security forces to get the job done,” said Abizaid. Abizaid dismissed the notion that more American troops were needed in Iraq. “There are more troops on the ground than ever before,” he said. “Iraqi troops are coming on line and they are fighting.” . . . Among Abizaid’s other concerns was the danger of a civil war in Iraq. . . Abizaid . . . was told that the U.S. war effort would likely stretch into the indefinite future. “It is like running a marathon. You hit the wall at 21 miles or 22 miles,” he said Friday. "If you give up, then you lose the prospect for victory or success. We’re not at the 21-mile mark yet, but we are heading for the wall. “We need to work our way and fight our way through the wall. It is not going to be done without work and without sacrifice. And it is not going to be done without cost in blood and treasure.”
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<p>General Abizaid has always been a straight shooter, and as a Lebanese-American Arabic speaker, has a more detailed and realistic idea of the situation than most US officers. But if he was quoted accurately, I don’t think he was delivering any good news.</p>
<p>There appears to be a big gap in attitudes in Iraq between the generals and the subaltern officers and servicemen. An academic sent me this:</p>
<pre><code>“Yesterday I talked with a 2nd Lt and West Point grad who has just come back from Iraq. He says flat out that the war is lost, that “we” only control territory when the troops are there in massive numbers and that “they” take over as soon as the troops leave, that the army is over-extended and morale is terrible – drug use is escalating – that there still isn’t enough armor, that the Iraqi army and police are worse than useless, and that senior officers are convinced that it is Vietnam redux. One of his classmates a 23-year old was killed last week – for nothing. There are signs that this story is belatedly beginning to sink in across the country, but he, and I, fears that it is too late.”
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<p>We saw this sort of thing in Vietnam, too. The Generals are the last to know, and they always think victory is around the corner if only they can convince the US public to commit “blood and treasure” for a few decades. </p>
<p>Brussels Conference Inconclusive
32 Dead in Guerrilla Violence</p>
<p>The Brussels conference of foreign ministers on Iraq seems to me to have yielded little practical result. The real action will come at the donors’ conference in Amman, Jordan, next month. The world community has pledged billions to Iraq, but has only delivered about $2 billion, in large part because the security situation makes it impossible to send teams out to evaluate projects or to actually disburse the funding in a practical way.</p>
<p>The Iraqis say that they are $125 billion in debt (the US government estimates it at $110 billion), and want massive debt relief. Without it, it is difficult to see how the country can get back on its feet. The Europeans will forgive them $40 billion. But a lot of the debt is owed to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, who are less willing to give up their claims. In fact, neither had up to this point even sent an ambassador to Baghdad. The Kuwaitis suffered enormous damage at the hands of the Iraqi army to their petroleum fields at the end of a brutal Iraqi occupation in 1990-91, and are in no mood to forgive Iraq’s debts or forego reparations.</p>
<p>Some observers suspect that the Saudis are nervous about doing anything that would build back up Iraq too quickly with too much strength until they are assured that the victory of the Shiites in the Jan. 30 elections will not translate into a Baghdad-Tehran axis hostile to Saudi interests. But the Saudis did pledge $1 bn. in reconstruction aid at Brussels, and have promised to send an ambassador. </p>
<p>[snip]</p>
<p>The rest of the world put pressure on the Jaafari government to be more inclusive of the Sunni Arabs. Jaafari is committed to deep debaathification, which punishes Sunni Arabs for simply having been a Baath Party member, regardless of whether he or she had done anything wrong. The guerrilla war, however, is being fueled in part by fears among Sunni Arabs that such attitudes will harm them for the long term. Back in Baghdad, al-Zaman reports that Vice-Premier Ahmad Chalabi visited Shaikh Hareth al-Dhari, leader of the hard line Sunni Association for Muslim Scholars. Chalabi later expressed shock at what he heard from al-Dhari about the excesses committed by Iraqi troops against ordinary Sunnis during the recent Operation Lightning. He promised to convey al-Dhari’s concerns to the cabinet.</p>
<p>Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi attended, and expressed confidence in the future of Iraq. The Tehran Times reports:</p>
<p>[snip]</p>
<p>It is obvious that Iranian relations with Iraq are going to be central to the country’s economic development. This reality puts the Bush administration in a bind. They hate the regime in Iran and would dearly love to do something to it. But they need Iranian support for their Iraq venture. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is therefore constrained to say she wants good relations between Iraq and Iran. The Bushies have such a contradictory set of policies in the Middle East that everyone is confused about what they want, exactly.</p>
<p>That Iraq has been captured by leaders of Shiite religious partners was underlined dramatically when Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari declined to shake hands with women at the conference. He is a physician, not a cleric, but as a devoted leader of the Shiite al-Dawa Party, he respects the norms of gender segregation.</p>
<p>As if to remind the world of the real Iraq, guerrillas initiated a bombing wave in the capital. On Thursday morning they detonated three bombs, killing at least three policemen and wounding 15 others. On Wednesday eveing, guerrillas detonated four big bombs in the capital, killing 23 and wounding around 50. Three of the bombs, two at restaurants and one at a bus station in the Shiite Shu’la district, were coordinated and virtually simultaneous. A fourth hit an Iraqi army convoy in a Baghdad suburb. </p>
<p>[snip]</p>
<p>Perhaps even more significant were the assassinations of Jassim al-Issawi, a law professor and former judge who was a candidate for the committee to draw up a permanent Iraqi constitution. His son, a newspaper editor, was also shot down. The attack appears to have been part of a brutal campaign of intimidation aimed at discouraging Sunni Arabs from cooperating with the new order in Iraq.</p>
<p>Although Sunnis may have been successful in filling out the 25 slots alloted them on the constitution drafting committee, the committee’s work has been postponed for a week. Sabotage has left several Baghdad neighborhoods without water or electricity, and the parliament building is in an affected area, prompting the postponement.</p>
<p>(I have to say that when prospective members of the drafting committee are being shot down, bombs are going off all over the capital, and the parliament can’t meet because basic services have been sabotaged, the constitution drafting process seems a bit surreal and highly unlikely to amount to anything without an end to the guerrilla war.)</p>
<p>In Kirkuk, a major Turkmen leader narrowly escaped assassination. Four of his body guards were wounded.</p>
<p>The day before, 3 US Marines had been killed by guerrillas near Ramadi.</p>
<p>posted by Juan @ 6/23/2005 06:30:00 AM