@TheGreyKing: “the top LACs dominate the lists of undergraduate origins of PhDs”
The LACs dominate the percapita_ PhD lists.
Look at total numbers and they are still dominated by top private and public unis:
https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/infbrief/nsf13323/
PSU (which isn’t UMich or Cal) had 6 times the number of undergrads who went on to get science/tech PhDs compared to Amherst, for instance.
To the OP: It really depends which state school and which LAC.
For pre-med, a top state school like UMich may actually be a worse option than an average state flagship or an average LAC.