<p>June 29 (Bloomberg) – President George W. Bush is likely to pay a political price if he decides to pardon convicted vice presidential aide Lewis ``Scooter’’ Libby – or if he decides not to pardon him.
With the start of Libby's 2 1/2-year prison term looming, Republican stalwarts who are the president's last source of political support may revolt unless he quickly pardons the former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney. If Bush does act, he would violate Justice Department guidelines, alienate much of the public and run the risk of cover-up charges.
``This is a no-win situation for Bush,'' said David Gergen, who advised Presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.
Libby, 56, was convicted in March of obstructing justice, perjury and making false statements to investigators probing the 2003 leak of Central Intelligence Agency agent Valerie Plame's identity. Unless a federal appeals court delays his sentence, he will be required to report to jail by late July or mid-August.
A Cable News Network/Opinion Research survey conducted after Libby's conviction found that 69 percent of respondents opposed a pardon while 18 percent favored it. At the same time, a pro-Libby firestorm is being fanned by self-described conservative bloggers and talk-radio hosts, and many conservative leaders are asking the president to step in.
`Railroaded' </p>
<p>Libby was <code>railroaded,‘’ said Paul Weyrich, head of the Washington-based Free Congress Foundation, a small-government educational group. David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, based in Alexandria, Virginia, said Libby got a</code>raw deal’’ and has been left to ``twist in the wind.‘’
Keene calls on Bush to display the same loyalty to Libby that he's shown to his friend Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, whose handling of the dismissal of eight U.S. prosecutors has prompted lawmakers to call for his resignation.
``It tells you what a deep, dark, dank un-spinnable hole Bush is in when he has to pardon a guy to appease 30 percent of the country,'' said Democratic strategist Chris Lehane, a former aide to Vice President Al Gore.
A pardon might also raise fresh questions about whether Libby had been acting at the request of his superiors. ``I think he sort of took one for the team,'' said Weyrich.
Divided Candidates
Republican divisions over the Libby affair have emerged among the party's presidential hopefuls. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney criticized the handling of the case but stopped short of backing a pardon.
Meanwhile, actor Fred Thompson, a former Tennessee senator and an undeclared candidate, said Libby ``absolutely'' should be pardoned. Thompson has lent his name to a lobbying campaign that's raising money on Libby's behalf. Arizona Senator John McCain and several others say it is premature to weigh in.
The candidate most strongly opposed to a pardon is former Virginia Governor James Gilmore, who's just a blip in the polls. The judicial process has worked its will,'' Gilmore said in an interview.To disrupt it is to undermine the law.'' Gilmore, a former state attorney general and chairman of the Republican National Committee, said many prosecutors share his sentiment.
Public Clamor
Public clamor for a president to grant clemency isn't unusual, said P.S. Ruckman Jr., a political science professor at Rock Valley Community College in Rockford, Illinois, and an expert on presidential pardons. He cited former Presidents Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower, who received ``millions of requests'' to spare the lives of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, who were executed for passing atomic secrets to the Soviet Union.
Bush and Cheney have so far said little about their intentions toward Libby. White House Deputy Press Secretary Dana Perino said Bush ``felt terrible'' for Libby and his family.
Bush has granted fewer pardons -- 113 -- than any president in the past 100 years, while denying more than 1,000 requests, said Margaret Colgate Love, the Justice Department's pardon attorney from 1990 to 1997.
In addition, Bush has denied more than 4,000 commutation requests, and hundreds of requests for pardons and commutations are still pending, Love said.
Going Against Guidelines
A quick pardon for Libby would go against Justice Department guidelines, which recommend that a supplicant wait five years after conviction or release from confinement before seeking a pardon. On the other hand, there's no requirement that a president wait; President Gerald Ford pardoned his disgraced predecessor, Richard Nixon, shortly after taking office in 1974, and before Nixon was convicted of anything.
The focus on a Libby pardon is obscuring other options available to Bush, including conditional pardons, commutations, remissions of fines and amnesties, Ruckman said.
One possibility would be to issue a respite directive, which simply delays carrying out a sentence and lets passions cool, he said. George Washington first granted respites in June, 1795, delaying the executions of two men involved in the Whiskey Rebellion; they were later pardoned, Ruckman said.
``Bush can keep Libby out of jail without exercising a pardon,'' Ruckman said. </p>
<p>To contact the reporter on this story: Edwin Chen in Washington at <a href="mailto:echen32at@bloomberg.net">echen32at@bloomberg.net</a></p>