Well - it’s like this - we have a thread now with the Rutgers/QB student.
He assumes, everyone assumes with his GPA and test score that he’s in. But he’s not 100% in - maybe it’s 95% or 90% chance. And would be affordable. But people call that a safety.
I suppose you’d call that a likely.
In this case, OP says - “But given that she has an affordable option where she is virtually guaranteed admission,”
I suppose you’d call that a likely…then in reality, most that people deem safeties are “likelies” in your lexicon - until that acceptance (which is affordable) comes in.