re post #18. That’s the Tampa ABC station. My go to one for his excellent teaching about Florida weather. Learned about percentage “coverage” instead of chances for rain- who knew it could rain here and be dry 2 miles away…
@wis75 – the definition of POP is more complex than it first appears and that leads to misunderstandings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation
There’s a big movement in the meteorological industry to try to convey the tons of data properly to the public. I think that some of the resulting graphics are misleading. For example, the probability of hurricane force wind graphics (PoHFW). Lets say there’s a Cat 5 hurricane that’s far offshore but is expected to maintain Cat 5 intensity until it hits the shoreline. Anywhere along that shoreline the PoHFW will be low because of the uncertainty of the track … but wherever it hits will be devastated (and that devastated area will be relatively small). When you look at the resulting graphic you’ll see a high probability near the current hurricane position and a fade/widening as you get farther out in time. If you’re an Emergency Manager or other government official, what’s your criteria for ordering an evacuation? Is it 5%, 10%, 50%? I don’t envy those people…
Up north rain tended to cover the entire area, the chances fit all. In Florida it will rain in the summer, but how much of the area changes the wording. The scientific definitions of Wikipedia were not useful. It is not misunderstandings of technical terms, it is getting used to how terms relate to one’s region. Strange ways of looking at things to outsiders.
With hurricane Irma the daily, then hourly data, changed predictions. Good meteorologists had trouble because Irma did not follow usual parameters. Difficult when ideal times to leave can be when predictions change close to the actual event. Like the “cone of uncertainty”. Irma did fall within it all of the time. Of course that did not mean being in the middle of it. 10% still means it can happen. 90% also means it may not happen. It was fascinating to follow Irma’s parameters (and nerve wracking not knowing how we would be affected). Complex variables, which Denis Phillips does a good job of explaining to those of us who want to know as much as we can without needing a meteorology degree.
It is great to not need to be technically precise. And I was a chemistry major undergrad.