<p>Just to clear up some misconceptions:</p>
<p>I believe last year was the year with the highest number of U.S. resident 18-year-olds, with the number declining ever so slightly for this year and the next five or six, before it starts to climb again. That, however, is only one of the factors that goes into the competitiveness of college applications. There is what percentage of those 18-year-olds apply to college (something that has been climbing steadily for decades and decades, although the growth has been slower the past few years), how many colleges they apply to, how many spaces those colleges have available, and, of course, how many students apply from outside the U.S. That’s why Harvard and Stanford applications can be up by double-digit percentages when the number of eligible domestic students is basically the same as last year.</p>
<p>I think everyone expects the recession/depression to affect applications to private colleges somewhat next year, but in the case of HYPS it will probably not do much besides hold down the rate of increase.</p>