<p>I think you have a plausible case. One very important thing, which may not come into play if you intened to apply ED: your first semester grades in your senior year can help you a lot if they are at or above your current GPA and if you continue to take a demanding program. (And if you are denied ED but deferred til April, those grades will absolutely make a difference.)</p>
<p>You are right that Reed is not entirely numbers oriented, but it’s also true that admission is becoming more competitive at Reed each year. So you want to put forward your best case.</p>
<p>I also think your background – not just minority status, but your economic background and being a first generation college student – would be a plus for Reed, which is looking for ways to diversify their student body.</p>
<p>But even with those characteristics, you still have to sell your case. You haven’t told us what puts Reed so high on your list. You will have to persuade the Reed admissions committee in your “Why Reed?” essay, and in the process also make it clear that you think you would bring something TO Reed (and your fellow students) and not just TAKE a lot from a Reed education.</p>