<p>I use Leavitt Brothers as one of my paid adviser sites. He has an interesting technical post this afternoon in his blog section. I can’t post a link from here (at least I don’t think that I can) but those interested can PM me or google the site.</p>
<p>Where’s the next support for the S&P 500? Needless to say (but I’ll say it anyway) the Index didn’t hold 1172 today.</p>
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Tega, I think if you look at chart 15: “Estimated Impact of a Deficit-Driven Tax Increase of 1% of GDP on the Components of GDP” you’ll see that dstark got it right. According to the Romer paper a tax increase designed to pay down an accumulated deficit actually is followed by increases in GDP and investment over the ensuing 12 quarter period. As the authors note on page 41: “…failing to account for the reasons for tax changes can lead to substantially biased estimates of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal actions.”</p>
<p>I don’t know enough about economics to have a reliable opinion as to whether they’re right or wrong, but I do know that you can’t keep cutting taxes all the way to zero without something bad happening - and that’s the road we’re on now. There has to be a “sweet spot” where taxes and government spending are optimal for the growth and protection of the economy - and it can’t be at zero.</p>
<p>BCEagle91 can you summarize their conclusions. The site is a paid site and I am cheap.</p>
<p>Do you have enough confidence in Leavitt Bros to trade on their recommendation?</p>
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<p>1050, then 1000 (actually a little higher than 1000 but my chart is small).</p>
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<p>Their blog is public. I would rather not repost without permission.</p>
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<p>Yes. I pay about $400/year for his advice. Actually he gives the most useful information away for free. I was using his free information for quite some time and decided to pay for it as it had helped me to make a fair chunk of change.</p>
<p>I don’t know what happened to the borrower…saver thread…I don’t remember too much politics in there…</p>
<p>Anyway…today was a good day to be a saver when comparing that to the stock market’s performance.</p>
<p>I wonder if these market movements are going to turn people off stocks for a long time.</p>
<p>I do hear rumblings that people don’t want to experience another 2008 and so they are gun shy.</p>
<p>My unofficial sample was clients of brokerage firms were not doing much today. They weren’t panicking.</p>
<p>I did mention earlier that buy/write clubs are going to have fewer members. I heard there was one in SF where traders share ideas. I think
with the vix in the 40’s, a lot of these traders are buried. There is probably a little panic in that neighborhood. Maybe, there will be a QE3 and these traders can start to recover.</p>
<p>Another 800-1000 Dow points or so and we will give back all the gains from QE2. </p>
<p>At some point…investors are going to have to eat it. We just can’t keep having QEs forever. Well…we could, but these programs won’t be effective.</p>
<p>Maybe, investors will have to go back to studying earnings and cash
flow, and stop relying on support from the FED everytime the market takes a hit.</p>
<p>Having said that, I am amazed how much my stock portfolio keeps
losing.</p>
<p>The daily chart of the $spx is truly stunning.</p>
<p>[$SPX</a> - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com](<a href=“StockCharts.com”>$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com)</p>
<p>dstark what do you mean ‘experience another 2008’. I have spent the last couple years wishing I had trusted my instincts a bit more then. Nov 2008 was a great time to buy stocks. Warren Buffet even wrote a NY Times opinion piece about it at the time- but not many heeded his advice.</p>
<p>I found the leavitt bros blog. It’s good stuff. </p>
<p>The S&P is trading more calmly outside of normal market hours. It’s easier to trade.</p>
<p>"dstark what do you mean ‘experience another 2008’. I have spent the last couple years wishing I had trusted my instincts a bit more then. Nov 2008 was a great time to buy stocks. Warren Buffet even wrote a NY Times opinion piece about it at the time- but not many heeded his advice. "</p>
<p>not as good as waiting until March 2009</p>
<p>“I wonder if these market movements are going to turn people off stocks for a long time.”</p>
<p>My view is that gambling with stocks … honestly now, what else would you call it? … is gambling on America. I think that’s a darned good bet, as do virtually all persons in my social, family, and business circles. There are many persons who don’t understand the game (at all I mean), and they’re probably better off in 0.2% CDs anyway.</p>
<p>BCEagle - Thanks for the S&P support levels. Was today the margin call bloodbath? I don’t see how, considering Friday’s action. Perhaps tomorrow … if it has to come, better sooner than later IMHO.</p>
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<p>Today was a day of orderly selling. I may place a buy at support in the $SPX 1000+ area but would have a stop a bit below that level. There is a lot of freefall space to the March 2009 lows. If we get into that territory, it’s scary. Unless you’re in cash looking to scoop up the double-bottom.</p>
<p>Market comments and tons of charts from a friend (he has a Phd in fine arts but he’s a talented trader too). His charts provide a graphic view of the markets.</p>
<p>[David</a> J. Kneupper (10 Per Page) - Public ChartList - Free Charts - StockCharts.com](<a href=“http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2287993]David”>StockCharts.com)</p>
<p>“Unless you’re in cash looking to scoop up the double-bottom.”</p>
<p>Nope. Can’t pick a bottom. Pitiful really. I should be better. My tombstone will probably say “In too early, out too early … but slept well at night.”</p>
<p>Ok…I looked at the graph. Are we going up tomorrow or not?</p>
<p>Yes.</p>
<p>We will go up sometime tomorrow.</p>
<p>Nope, markets will go down. Why? because BB is not yet disgusted with the markets to the point of turning her monitor off. :)</p>
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<p>hard to spend on other things when social security, medicare, and medicaid take up 90% of federal government revenue.</p>
<p>So I said something about trading after hours is calm. S&P is now at 1077 down 33 in after hours. Turns out that calm it aint.</p>