First of all, congratulations on having such an excellent academic record. I’m sure you worked very hard, and it certainly shows in your grades! You have a lot to be proud of!
Hard to understand how a 4.0 UW with tons of APs puts you only in the top 15% of a public school where the kids didn’t even show up to online school. If you’re really only in the top 15% of a public school from Texas, with those ECs, I honestly think that Penn and Rice both are long shots for you, even if applying ED. Could it be that you are more highly ranked in your class than you realize? And yes, I know, your school doesn’t rank, but still, your school must send out something to the colleges with your letter letting them know approximately what percentage of the class has what GPAs, something like, "10% of the class have GPAs of 4.0-5.9, and so on. If you’re really only in the top 15% of the class, then I don’t think your chances at any of your matches and reaches are good.
Rice is a private U, and as such, there is no “in-state” advantage. Whether or not your family will get need-based money depends upon the family’s finances. You’re well-positioned to get merit money at lesser schools.
I think your safety and likely are probably on target. UVa and Emory are reaches, not matches. And your reaches are very high reaches to dream schools.
If you’re perfectly happy to go to a UT school, that’s great, and you can rest assured that you will get into one, the family can afford it, and all will be well. But if you want to go to other than a UT school, you need to figure out whether your family would qualify for aid, whether your family can afford 75K/yr, whether you need to chase merit money at lesser schools (flagship state U’s in the south and southwest, or lesser private schools that would give you a lot of merit money to get you and your stats to go there).
And if you were going to apply to one of the two ED, I think your chances are about the same at both (meaning not impossible, but pretty low), and that you should apply ED to the one you like best, if your family thinks they can swing what the school is likely going to demand.
Rest assured that if you wind up at a UT school, you’ll do incredibly well, make your mark there, and have a bright future. And any other school would be lucky to have you.