Colleges don’t universally adhere to the FAFSA EFC - they each calculate their own expected family contribution, based on the financial info provided in the FAFSA and, for many schools, the CSS profile. When need-based aid is sought, it’s important to run the Net Price Calculator for each school, to get an estimate of what that school will expect your family to contribute. Running Syracuse’s NPC, if you haven’t, is an important step to take: Net Price Calculator - Syracuse.edu If the result is within your budget, and your son prefers SU to the schools being discussed that would be affordable with merit aid alone, then an ED application would be worth considering, because as others are saying, it’s a low-reach that could go either way. But if the projected cost isn’t affordable, ED shouldn’t be considered.
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