OK - thanks for the clarification. I saw Freshman.
In that case, the guidance still remains - does the student have a preferred campus type.
That said, given the status, estimated test, etc. - Michigan State and Oregon State will not hit budget. Nor will Clemson, Va Tech or UGA. And a non affordable acceptance is the worst thing.
UNCC would be a solid target school for this student.
You might try Iowa State, Kansas State, and Mississippi State - which aren’t assured to hit cost. UAH is another depending on SAT.
Of course, the major will matter too.
Good luck.