Depending on how you define target, that could reach as far as my “lower probability” bucket. Below are some schools with strength in your areas of interest. Do not interpret the fact that some of these have longer descriptions and others have none. It reflects my rapidly diminishing levels of energy, and nothing else .
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
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Gustavus Adolphus (MN): About 2k undergrads
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Indiana U.: About 37k undergrads here with robust offerings throughout the arts & sciences. It’s also got a great journalism program, and though you don’t express any interest in studying music in college, it has a world renowned music school with tons of different ensembles, which I believe you’d be eligible to audition for.
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Lawrence (WI): About 1400 undergrads and particularly strong physics and music
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SUNY Geneseo (NY): About 3900 undergrads at New York’s public liberal arts college
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The College of New Jersey: About 7100 undergrads
Likely (60-79%)
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Rochester Institute of Technology (NY): About 13k undergrads
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Southern Methodist (TX): About 7100 undergrads
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St. Olaf (MN): About 3100 undergrads (and already mentioned)
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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Binghamton (NY): About 14k undergrads
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Brandeis (MA): About 3700 undergrads
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Kenyon (OH): About 2200 undergrads
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U. of Maryland: About 31k undergrads, strong overall, but especially for math and physics.
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U. of Rochester: About 6800 undergrads
Lower Probability (20-39%)
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Oberlin (OH): About 3k undergrads
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William & Mary (VA): This school will run over budget (it would be about $65k), but your family may decide it has enough cachet that it’s willing to spend the money.
Low Probability (less than 20%)
As far as the schools you’re eyeing, I’d push Rose-Hulman up to a likely, move Case Western to a lower probability, and Northwestern down to a low probability.
And if Rose-Hulman is of interest, then I’d add Rennselaer Polytechnic (RPI) and Worcester Polytechnic (WPI) to the possibilities. I don’t think they have as robust humanities and social sciences as the schools I mentioned above, but WPI certainly has cross-registration opportunities with College of the Holy Clark and Clark, both in the same city.
Anyway, if you could let us know which of people’s suggestions attract or repel (and why) that will help us develop better options for you.