Presumably you are seeing by now that it is very hard to “chance” a student with a profile like yours. Even once we see the outcome of your application process (which I really do hope you’ll share with us!), it won’t really prove that anyone giving advice here was “right” or “wrong”… because in the overall “pool” of students with profiles like yours - profiles that have blemishes but also show strength and potential - the entire range of outcomes will occur, and who lands where comes down to the perceptions of AO’s, which you’re able to influence to some extent but not entirely control.
The lesson, and the challenge, is that you’ll need to approach this process with more than one frame of reference in your head, and you’ll need to sustain that cognitive dissonance over the coming year. Everyone needs to “hope for the best but prepare for the worst” - it’s just that the disparity between the best and worst outcomes for you is a lot wider than for most.
I think Publisher is right that you have a chance at some of the most competitive schools in the country, especially if you can become a Questbridge finalist. Is it likely that you’ll end up at a Princeton/Yale type school? No, but it’s not foolish to try. There is enough evidence that you have the “chops” for such a school if they decide to bet on you.
Is it possible that your only affordable path will be either a full ride at a less-competitive school like Prairie View, or a CC-to-UT pathway in-state? Yes, it could turn out that way, and it wouldn’t be the end of the world - you could be successful that way too.
And in between, there’s the whole range of competitive-but-not-ultra-competitive schools, and the question of whether one or more will hit the sweet spot of admitting you with enough financial support to be a viable option. (Within that category, yet very different from most, is Berea, which I still feel could be a fantastic option for you… and while acceptance isn’t a slam-dunk in any way, my gut says that you’re the kind of student they’re looking for.)
The problem you face here is that you have to narrow such a wide field down to a manageable number of actual applications. You can’t realistically “shotgun” all of the tippy-top schools, and apply to all of the good moderately-competitive choices, AND apply to every competitive full-ride scholarship at otherwise less-competitive universities. So, how can you develop a balanced list without foreclosing on opportunities that might have ended up being “the one?”
The first fork in this decision tree will be how your Questbridge applications turn out, as that will substantially shape your overall strategy. But even if you become a Questbridge finalist, you’ll need to narrow down. Lots of QB applicants just apply to the 15 “top” schools on that list, but that’s why so many don’t match. What I usually suggest to QB applicants is that they divide the overall list into thirds, by acceptance rate, and pick the five best-fit schools in each category to build their overall list of 15 match schools. Ideally, if you find reasons to see a fit between yourself and those schools, the AO’s will see fit too, and your chances of scoring a full-ride acceptance won’t be substantially less than if you could apply to all the partner schools.
If QB doesn’t work out, then you’ll need a different strategy - possibly identifying both ED1 and ED2 schools where you see the best fit and the NPC projects affordability, plus applying EA wherever possible to the other schools on your list (including Berea) and identifying the best scholarships to shoot for at the Prairie View type schools, and also an in-state housing plan if starting out in community college ends up being your best option.
It’s a lot. It’s good that you’re starting early and getting lots of advice. Yes, a lot of the advice seems to conflict, but none of it is wrong; it just reflects the reality of the challenging split mindset you’ll need to maintain. Hopefully those of us commenting here can acknowledge this reality and avoid debating the unprovable.
To follow up on previous points:
Sorry you’re dealing with preferential treatment between sibs; that is tough. I understood that your folks were giving you financial info to work with currently. My concern was whether they will continue to file FAFSA forms for you over your entire four years of college, after you are “kicked out.” Are you confident that they will? Even Berea requires the FAFSA to be filed every year, in addition to qualifying financially in the initial admission process.
Yes, it requires a PhD intention (which could be an MD/PhD) but of course that isn’t enforceable; I’m sure not every student in the cohort goes on to a PhD program. Many students who express a premed intention at this stage in the game do not end up going on to med school; you could end up going to grad school for sociology, AFAM studies, public health - who knows? I know a student in this program whose interests were similar to yours going in. That said, some of your reservations about Howard have been confirmed by their experiences there. The full ride is great, as are the research and internship opportunities, so it might be worth having in the mix even if it isn’t your preferred outcome… but it’s also fine if it doesn’t make the cut for you. Just seemed worth running up the proverbial flagpole. I don’t think Spelman has scholarships this generous, but I could be wrong. (Spelman does have a great domestic exchange program; if you end up at a generous PWI, an exchange semester at Spelman may be an option to consider if the school interests you.) I agree that you have a great chance of getting into Spelman, but I’m skeptical that the financial support would be sufficient.
Good luck with the QB College Prep Scholars process; will be great if that works out! Keep looking into the entire range of schools that are being suggested, and try to get a sense of what really resonates with you, because it’s those sometimes-intangible “fit factors” that will narrow down your list and hopefully help to channel where AO’s will see fit as well.