When chancing a student for schools, I usually use these categories:
- Extremely Likely: 80-99+%
- Likely: 60-79%
- Toss-Up: 40-59%
- Lower Probability: 20-39%
- Low Probability: less than 20%
For the vast majority of the schools on your list, I would classify them as “Low Probability.” Some of them might be more in the 10-20% range and others in the sub-5% range, but nearly all would be in that “Low Probability” category.
Babson, Villanova, and U. of Washington I’d probably put in the Lower Probability range. U. of Wisconsin I’d probably classify as a Toss-Up.
When developing a college list, I believe in starting with the sure things, the schools that are extremely likely to be acceptances and to be affordable. I highly recommend finding at least one, and preferably at least two, schools that fit in this category. These should not just be schools that are extremely likely to be affordable and acceptances, but that you would be happy to attend for four years. If those are your top two schools that you’re considering, you could end your college list right there. There’s no need to have a list with 10-20 schools on it.
Often times, however, there are schools that students become interested in that are not extremely likely admits. Those would fall in the other buckets.
I recommend that students think about their own mental makeup when deciding how to balance their college lists. For some students, rejection is a fuel that makes them want to be even more awesome wherever they end up so they can show the places where they received rejections/waitlists what a big mistake they made. For students like that, having a very reach-heavy list can be reasonable. But for many students, receiving rejections can cause a big emotional hit, making them question their own worth and the value of acceptances they’ve already received.
I find that most people do better if they get more acceptances than rejections, but this is a situation that is very individual-specific. I would take some time for serious introspection, and perhaps also talk about the topic with those who are close to you to help determine how you want to balance your college list in terms of schools that are likelier to accept you and schools that are less likely to accept you. Please note, however, that likelihood does not mean guarantee. Low Probability does not mean Impossibility.