<p>I think your recommenders have good advice and have your best interests at heart. </p>
<p>A 740 math, despite seeming like a good score, is actually quite a disadvantage, since the median is 780 and almost all people applying to top programs will have 800. Your GPA is okay, and in the mid-range for the good schools, but it doesn’t seem like you have very much to give you that extra ‘kick’. You say you have strong recommendations from your thesis, but a senior thesis is fairly standard these days in most universities and I imagine nearly all people who write theses get strong recommendations. </p>
<p>All that negative talk aside - it could be that you perform very well on the GRE next round, and actually have extremely strong recommendations, and get into one of the top 5 schools! You should certainly apply, but perhaps temper your hopes.</p>