You cannot compare NPCs and FAFSA.
FAFSA is the government expected financial contribution.
The NPC is school specific - a school like - for example Coe College in Cedar Rapids Iowa doesn’t meet need and their cost will be different. What they governments shows isn’t what they show.
There’s no reason not to apply for aid. It costs both financially and in time - but you are not going to get rejected anywhere because you applied for aid. Now, if your “need” is too much, then yes a need aware school can reject you. But this won’t be you.
And many schools are need blind and won’t even know your finances.
The reason not to apply for aid is - if you don’t want the government $5500 loan, you don’t want to spend money on the CSS, and you don’t want to spend the time on these forms.
Some schools do require FAFSA for merit - few but some - so check your schools.
But you have no downside to filling out the form.
Good luck.