@artandtechmom I’m in the arts (but my husband is a research scientist/statistician). So although it’s not my area I know a little bit about stats. I think there are just way way too many variables for this to have any value. I can honestly say I was one of those people who never posted our acceptances or final story because my daughter is private and this is really her journey. (But of course you can read back over my posts and figure a lot out…). I know there are many parents like me out there who participate in CC but do not post final stats. I do agree with your final basic assessment and think that’s great advice, “I think these truths hold 1) choose the schools that seem right for you 2) make sure your list is balanced 3) get as much support as you can and 4)keep positive and allow for some bumps along the way.” It’s a journey, and as we can never know each individuals talent or story or training - everything is speculation. What I would say based on reading this board over the last two years and from my own experience where we live - is that there is incredible escalation in terms of the numbers of schools that people are applying to. I really don’t think anyone needs 30 schools. But what you do need is a well crafted list. Kids in my area have done very well with multiple acceptances and these kids have varying levels of ability but they tailored their list to that - making sure they had dream schools but also programs that are much less selective. (I would also spend time on ballet technique and learning to read music. Consider taking Music Theory in high school if your school offers it. Make sure your vocal cuts show off your range and diversity. And for god’s sake - read the play your monologue is from and be able to discuss it (I can’t tell you the number of kids I’ve seen who don’t know what they’re acting… - and know they were denied admission from certain programs as a result). Anyway that’s just my two cents for what it’s worth. Enjoy the journey!! Wish I could do it all over again!