I know a young man with a profile almost identical to yours. He was accepted to MIT RD. Deferred EA. Deferred from Michigan engineering EA too which stunned him and his family. It was a v-e-r-y long 4 months before he got his acceptances to those schools while many of his classmates were accepted early with far less stellar academic numbers.
I strongly suggest you apply to at least one sure thing school early along with MIT early if that’s what you have in mind. Just as a head’s up, Cal Tech and MIT give zero advantage to applying early. Most other schools do.
The young man was turned down by Penn (lost his legacy hook by not applying ED), which was another stun gun hit, as well as Harvard, Columbia and Princeton. He did get into Cornell and RPI which was his safety. He was going to take s gap year and try again if things did not pan out
So, yes, you are in the running. I personally think you have more than half a chance of getting into a top 20 school if you pick from bottom of that list as well as the top, but so also recommend strongly that you throw some more likely schools in there. Like CMU (not CS), Case Western , RPI, your flagship state school( get that app in early).
If you row well enough to be an athletic recruit, you’d almost certainly be in. Same if you could make the MIT basketball team.
I do not know how much MIT values completion of their OCW and your coding classes. Perhaps their CS department can tell you this and even eagerly advocate for you. A personal visit to them might be in order. See how excited they are with your list of accomplishments
Your physics teacher is a teacher at your school, right? Not some outside of school program? LORs from your school’s teacher and GC are what count heavily.