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Note that my example showing acceptance/rejection decisions among posters appeared to highly predictable for the vast majority of posters, contained the following statement:</p>
<p>“Obviously these rules would not apply well to all apps since the posters on CC are a unique subgroup that tends to be high-stat, well-informed students who attended quality high schools and took rigorous courses. There is also likely a bias towards posting accepted results and not posting rejected results.”</p>
<p>In my original post, I essentially gave the same limitations of the data that you listed. CC posters as a whole are in no way average, and there are plenty of other groups besides CC posters who attend colleges, with completely different characteristics. For example, I don’t recall anybody in the decision threads being a first generation college student, yet these make up a double digit percentage of the overall admitted class at Stanford, and this group likely has a very different admission pattern. Or the most obvious difference is the dramatically different rate of acceptances, as I listed in my original post. Nevertheless, this doesn’t change my point that the decisions appeared to be highly predictable among this unique subgroup. </p>
<p>Also note that my short list of rules that led to the correct decision for the vast majority of CC RD posters (not all, exceptions are expected) phrased it as “ECs/awards”. I meant grouping them together as a single unit, rather than requiring that both ECs and awards be at a high level. For example, one admit might have a passion for science as reflected by some amazing ECs that were impressive on a regional+ level, but no science awards – that qualifies. Another might being have state level science award without ECs that were noteworthy beyond a school level, which also qualifies. I expect that Stanford looks favorably on applicants who are passionate about something and achieve amazing things in that passion, which is often reflected in ECs/awards, leading to a acceptance among CC posters having a high correlation with ECs/awards. It’s similar to how GPA or test scores are highly correlated with an increased chance of admission, even though many admits did not have high GPA and test scores. I certainly didn’t have high GPA/scores (by CC standards of high), but I did show I possessed the same qualities that they were looking for in GPA & test scores in other ways.</p>