<p>Disclaimer: I’m also a class of '19 (soon to be) applicant, so I’ve got no personal knowledge, but from talking to many, many USNA grads, parents, mids, etc., I’ve got at least some stuff to help you.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>It’s really impossible to do chances because so many things factor into the decision…I like to say service academies are harder to get into than Harvard because of the nomination and fitness parts. </p></li>
<li><p>VA is a very competitive state; what district are you in?</p></li>
<li><p>NASS is even more competitive than the Academy itself, and if you don’t get in, that doesn’t mean you don’t have a chance at USNA itself, and vice versa. Also, NASS gives you a limited view of the Academy because it shows all the wonderful, fun stuff. </p></li>
<li><p>Your step-father won’t impact your application. Also, being a female doesn’t matter either.</p></li>
<li><p>It’s not necessarily too late to earn a varsity letter, and at the very least, if you can, do JV sports still. Something is better than nothing. And at the very, very least, you need to be able to do sit ups and push ups, because it’s on the CFA and especially if you’re lacking in the sports department you need to do well on the CFA. Start practicing, and talk to someone (a gym teacher or sports coach maybe) to give you advice. Start by doing wall push ups, then modified push ups, and so on and so forth.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>
It’s a big thing, and while of course, there are candidates who are admitted without varsity sports, it’s important.</p>