Kiddo – I’m sure that’s very disappointing to your family.
But fwiw, I don’t think applying REA had anything to do with the outcome.
I’ve always felt that the “REA deny that could have been an RD accept” was mostly an ND urban myth (since there’s always a big buffer built in with the defers). And the most recent numbers tell me that even more.
This year, it seemed that the REA/don’t REA advice coming out of ND was a lot looser than in prior years. Three years ago, for example, my kid (non-legacy) was firmly told “DO NOT REA” with a 33 ACT (and that was when the ACT range was lower at 32-34).
ND had flat total apps between 2020 and 2021, but REA apps went up 10%. REA apps went up another 10% for 2022. So I think ND realizes that REA has become the second front door and is gradually backing off of its concept that REA should just be limited to the upper quartile applicants. No way would ND only be accepting 25% of the REA pool if most of those kids really were top quartile applicants.
I also note that ND did not announce this year (as they have in the past) how many defers they had for 2022. My guess is that the number of defers was down. Which would be another indication that the REA round is becoming (in size and stats) more like the overall pool. More and more ND seats (probably 50+% this cycle) are getting allocated to REA admits, because the REA round keeps getting bigger and because the higher number of REA offers have a higher yield. Which would mean there’s less need for the defer buffer.
So it seems to me like ND is gradually sliding towards what most other selective EA/SCEA/REA schools say – you’ll get the same outcome either way. So apply early if your app is ready and as good as it will get.
Also fwiw, getting the bad news now will help you and your kid in the long term. The courtesy defer or automatic defer (like Gtown does) just drags your grieving and selection process out.
Good luck.