<p>The concern over a NEW vaccine in this case is a bit premature. Vaccines are produced against influenza every season. They usually cover a few serotypes. This is an influenza vaccine, it will simply be specific to h1n1 serotype. For that reason, it is not that different from the millions of influenza vaccines produced to date. </p>
<p>There WILL be more sheer number of reported cases of vaccine side effects. That is because world wide there will be huge numbers of vaccinated persons. I suspect that the percentage of cases of vaccine problems will be LOWER, but the absolute numbers will be higher. This will be unfortunate. The deaths from h1n1 in those not vaccinated will still be a problem, as will the morbidity. And after the arrival of the vaccine, most morbidity and mortality will have been preventable. Bottom line, WAY MORE ILLNESS AND DEATH will occur from the virus than the vaccine. But the publicity and press will be about the vaccine causing problems. </p>
<p>In war, there are those who die for their country. In illness, there will be those who will be harmed from vaccines while we try to protect a nation. But without war we will not have freedoms. And without vaccines we will loose far more lives. Just like seat belts. Seat belts kill. More die from not wearing seat belts.</p>
<p>As far as college students go, have there been that many deaths out of college students that have been infected. A friend told me that there have been three in the US. That seems tiny compared to the number of people infected. From what I’ve read in people that I know that have had it, it seems pretty mild. It obviously can be deadly in some people or in certain environments. But is it something to panic over at this point?</p>
<p>We have to remember that it is just September and flu season isn’t in full swing yet. We will likely see both the seasonal flu and the swine flu, and since thousands die every year from just the seasonal flu, the double outbreak will result in more deaths. College age kids could pretty much expect just to get sick from the the seasonal flu, but the swine flu has shown an affinity for that age group so we may see more deaths in that age group. So far, those who have died seem to have had underlying conditions that contributed to death.</p>
<p>That age group is clearly getting hit hard, especially with college students but mortality numbers are tiny. Is there an expectation that the percentage will rise or stay constant? If large college populations are getting it now, does that mean that it will be a much smaller problem for college students later in the season? BTW, college students make up 25% to 50% of that age population so there are lots of others in that age group that won’t be exposed if they’re not in college so I guess that they are at risk. I think that college students in general make up a very healthy part of the population.</p>
<p>Since the H1N1 vaccine is not expected to be available until late October at best, anyone who has concerns should have sufficient time to speak with their physicians and determine the best course of action for him or herself.</p>
<p>The numbers of cases and the deaths over the summer are troubling. Influenza is generally quiescent in the summer months. The cases and the complications, all over the summer months, is what has public health officials worried. The peak time is November to February, and the concern is that we will see numbers during the peak incidence that will be overwhelming. This thing spreads rather quickly. And there are alot of very ill folks who do not die, but are hospitalized with secondary pneumonia, who end up on a ventilator or even in a coma. Vaccination not only protects you, but the more vaccinated the more walls are put up to affect the spread. There will be little to no prior immunity/protection for most of us. We don’t even yet know if a mild case will protect you from re-exposure during the more virulent months. This strain is just unpredictable. </p>
<p>The vaccine will be available. At this point, it is a take-it-or-leave it proposition, as a health emergency has not been declared. So take it, or leave it. </p>
<p>Forecasting the virus and its effects are like hurricane forecasting. The hurricane may or may not hit. The hurricane itself may or may not cause widespread damage. The winds may not be a problem, but the dike failures and flooding might be devastating. You can leave when there are warnings, and you can stay. You can talk about the massive evacuations that were unnecessary. You can also talk to those who rode it out in Galveston and the ninth ward in New Orleans. Folks died evacuating–I recall the bus fire in Houston. You are at risk if you leave. You are at risk if you stay. Many died when they stayed behind.</p>
<p>Educate yourself, and decide what you will do for yourself and your family.</p>
<p>Right now, we are only assuming that the illnesses on campus are swine flu. Many of the symptoms I am hearing could be from a cold, bronchitis, pneumonia or even allergies. I would not base a decision on getting a shot or not on someone having had a cough and a mild temperature.</p>
<p>There were 1380 hospitilizations and 196 deaths in one week alone in patients with influenza like illnesses, the most recent week for which we have numbers. These are NOT small numbers, and for a week in late summer, they are disturbing. Now this is not all h1n1 confirmed. These are patients with influenza like illnesses or flu then pneumonia.</p>
<p>What are the percentages though? 196 deaths out of 196 cases is a lot different than 196 cases out of a million cases. FWIW, three times as many people die each week from car accidents.</p>
<p>It is certainly an inexact science for the CDC to determine how many cases there are at this point. D2 had a complication, so she saw a doctor, but I did not even bother calling the doctor when I got sick with it a few days later. I knew they would not give me anti-viral medication, as I do not fall in a high risk category. So I figured I would call if I felt like I was getting any complications. No complications (just a week of work missed ), so no call to the doctor. There are plenty of cases like mine, I suspect.</p>
<p>I got clarification on what was actually said to the students. It was a misinterpretation of the wording. The notice said ALL STUDENTS WILL GET the H1N1 vaccine on (and they gave 5 dates starting in Nov.) when what they meant to say was that students getting the Vaccine can schedule an appointment for those dates. They did not mean to imply that everyone had to get it. At least that clears up a little bit of the confusion on my part. Something else for students on F1 visa is that in our case for example I am able to drive down to pick her up if she is sick but make sure she does not look sick when crossing the border as I have been told (not confirmed) that border crossing may turn people back if they are sick with possible H1N1 symptoms.</p>
<p>The issue is this vaccine was developed and tested in a day. 6 months is nothing in terms of developing a vaccine.
The last time there was a swine flu epidemic was in the 1970s. A vaccine was quickly developed. A relatively large number of people got Guillain-Barre, a serious neurological disorder. At the end of the day, the virus was not as deadly as predicted. The vaccine killed more than the virus.</p>
<p>The swine flu virus is not significantly different from the seasonal flu virus - which they have to tweak every year anyway. My understanding is that much of the testing involved figuring out the dosage. 1976 was a long time ago in the flu vaccine scheme. There have been many years of using it with minimal side effects. I’m not aware that there was proof of causation between the shot and GBS. It seems similar to the claim that vaccinations cause autism. </p>
<p>I’m sure businesses are hoping to avoid having to shut down because of the flu, but I’m surprised they are making it mandatory.</p>
<p>cartera45, I have done quite a bit of reseach on the swine flu vaccine and GBS link, as my father-in-law contracted GBS after having the vaccine. The CDC says on their website that they do believe there is a link. However, as far as I can tell from reading the studies, they have never pinned down the underlying reason. There is a study that points to antigens in the vaccine that elicited an antibody response in some individuals, leading to GBS, but it sounds like they need more research to confirm this. Of course, the number of cases was very small, estimated to be 4.9 to 5.9 per million vaccines. </p>
<p>Our daughters’ pediatrician recommended that our children NOT get the vaccine because of their grandfather’s GBS. (BTW, we are not anti-vaccine at all, this is the only vaccine our kids have ever skipped). The CDC has been watching specifically for an increased incidence of GBS during this year’s H1N1 vaccine trials, and has mechanisms in place to continue monitoring as the vaccine is rolled out.</p>
<p>I talked about the vaccine with my daughter’s doctor because my grandfather was diagnosed with GBS - not related to a shot though. She felt, that because of an underlying condition and because outbreaks at college are predicted to be particularly prevalent, that my D should be put on the list to get the shot. If not for that, I would likely not stop her from getting it, but wouldn’t be concerned if there were not enough available for her not to receive it either. She has only received the seasonal flu shot once in the past - as have I. It is difficult to weigh the risks when none of us knows what will happen this winter.</p>
<p>We had family members die in the “Spanish Flu” pandemic in 1918. These were young adults with small children. This is still part of the family lore. It is thought that the cytokine reaction among healthy young adults was similar in that outbreak and was responsible for many deaths. We will all be getting the H1N1 vacine.</p>
<p>P.S.
I don’t usually consult wikipedia for medical info, but I though this was a pretty straightforward explanation:</p>
<p>From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search</p>
<p>The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish Flu) was an influenza pandemic that spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually virulent and deadly influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1. Historical and epidemiological data are inadequate to identify the geographic origin of the virus.[1] </p>
<p>Most of its victims were healthy young adults, in contrast to most influenza outbreaks which predominantly affect juvenile, elderly, or otherwise weakened patients. The flu pandemic has also been implicated in the sudden outbreak of encephalitis lethargica in the 1920s.[2]</p>
<p>The pandemic lasted from March 1918 to June 1920,[3] spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. It is estimated that anywhere from 50 to 100 million people were killed worldwide.[4][5][6][7][8] An estimated 500 million people, one third of the world’s population (approximately 1.6 billion at the time), became infected.[5]</p>
<p>Scientists have used tissue samples from frozen victims to reproduce the virus for study. Given the strain’s extreme virulence there has been controversy regarding the wisdom of such research. Among the conclusions of this research is that the virus kills via a cytokine storm (overreaction of the body’s immune system) which explains its unusually severe nature and the concentrated age profile of its victims. The strong immune systems of young adults ravaged the body, whereas the weaker immune systems of children and middle-aged adults caused fewer deaths.[9]</p>
<p>We do not expect that there will be a shortage of 2009 H1N1 vaccine, but availability and demand can be unpredictable. There is some possibility that initially the vaccine will be available in limited quantities. In this setting, the committee recommended that the following groups receive the vaccine before others: pregnant women, people who live with or care for children younger than 6 months of age, health care and emergency medical services personnel with direct patient contact, children 6 months through 4 years of age, and children 5 through 18 years of age who have chronic medical conditions.</p>
), so no call to the doctor. There are plenty of cases like mine, I suspect.</p>