I have a whole different approach. I only buy used cars. I’ve never bought a new one.
When you buy a car new, the average condition of the car is the same for all new cars. Therefore the best you can get is average. Its value depreciates like the average car, etc.
Over time, cars depreciate, some people drive them more, and some people drive them less. Some people take better care of them etc. Nonetheless, the standard deviation on the valuation of the car is actually quite small compared to the mean of that vintage.
Therefore when looking for a used car, I don’t want average. I don’t want good. I want excellent. If you can hold out for that rare creampuff, you can get a great deal because there is only so much over book value that you can pay because you could only insure it for book value. Options are far less expensive on used, so I only buy cars that are fully loaded. I’ve used this tactic often. My position is that I can only pay about $500 to $1000 over book value. I’ve walked out of dealerships and been called back 15 minutes later.
I’ve gotten cars for book value or slightly above that had a utility far greater than the book value because of the rare excellent condition they were in.
The other thing I’ve found, especially on Japanese compacts is that the creampuffs are almost always the ones driven by women. Men will drive a car into the ground, but women will often put the car up for sale long before it’s expiration date, often as soon as the warranty expires.
Finally, there is no substitute for the independent mechanic who you develop a personal relationship with and who you trust. I’ve been going to the same Japanese car mechanic for 20 years and we take care of each other. I never complain about the price, and he makes sure the cars stay in perfect shape, erring on the side of safety. He’s expensive but worth it. I’ve saved fortunes on the cars. I make sure that I will be able to take the car to my mechanic on the phone call before I head out to the dealership. That’s non-negotiable. If a dealer or owner says that I can’t, that dealer doesn’t exist as far as I’m concerned.