To be honest, if we all took truth serum we would all admit how bewildered the process was while we were going through it. It was just as hard the third time that it was for the first. Now looking back, we are temped to say “what was so hard about all of that.”
The parent’s job is to help your kid set goals. You need to swallow hard and figure out where athletics figures into all of this. I will say, I was more karma oriented. We followed where recruiting led us – to an extent at least.
In your case, I would encourage your kid to go on that school visit. You really don’t know what is going to shake out, and besides, have you ever heard of anyone getting a job when they declined to be interviewed?. IMHO if you are wondering why someone with lower grades, scores and times could get recruited over someone who is better in all categories, it could well be the amount of effort the kid put into being recruited. You are right, the NESCAC is D3 and the coach never knows who will back out or not apply ED. But, the odds are far better that the kid who has been emailing twice a month, went on an unofficial and an OV, and has been returning calls will apply ED compared to a kid who just submitted a recruiting profile.
As noted, there are both tips and slots in the NESCAC. Slots are for the kids that fall below the A band. Tips are for kids in the A band. A kid with a 36 ACT and 4.0 can (and if he is recruited will) still get coach support as a tip. The tip is used when you are just the kind of student that the college would really like to admit, but there are so many of those of students, you could get overlooked. The point is for the coach to let admissions know not to overlook you.
I would ask for a pre-read. Once you get the pre-read, you have a pretty good sense of where you stand with the coach.