<p>^ Yes. “Likely voters” is a synonym for older Republicans (mostly McCain followers) & older, traditional Democrats. Statistically, that is in fact the group that is most stable as predictable voters.</p>
<p>592,434 views on YouTube</p>
<p>It’s the most viewed video on YouTube today, with more than double the next most viewed and ten times the 3rd most viewed.</p>
<p>Another stupid McCain ad that you can see by clicking the link.
[John</a> McCain 2008 - John McCain for President](<a href=“http://www.johnmccain.com/mccainreport/Read.aspx?guid=407a4608-e168-4e52-bd73-25735152f679]John”>http://www.johnmccain.com/mccainreport/Read.aspx?guid=407a4608-e168-4e52-bd73-25735152f679)</p>
<p>The below is from the jedreport blog:</p>
<p>Sat Aug 2, 4:08 PM Pacific
McCain Mocked Idea of Obama on U.S. Currency…in JUNE</p>
<p>Andrew Sullivan, Chris Bodenner, and Eli Sanders all note that the McCain campaign’s strategy on race is to (a) play the race card and then (b) accuse Obama of having played the race card.</p>
<p>The issue here, of course, is that John McCain claimed great umbrage at Barack Obama’s lighthearted comment that Bush and McCain would emphasize that “he doesn’t look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills.”</p>
<p>But if John McCain thinks that comment was playing the race card, then why did he play it first? One month ago – in late June – a McCain ad superimposed Obama’s visage on a one hundred dollar bill as part of an effort to mock his supposed ‘presumptuousness.’</p>
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<p>Keep us posted on this, id. :)</p>
<p>Andrew Sullivan. Now there’s a mysogynistic piece of work.</p>
<p>He said on national TV that Senator Clinton needed to take classes or hormones to lower her voice so that she sounds like a man.</p>
<p>Pardon me if I continue to ignore his “notes”. The punditocracy: the most corrosive element in American politics today.</p>
<p>“One month ago – in late June – a McCain ad superimposed Obama’s visage on a one hundred dollar bill as part of an effort to mock his supposed ‘presumptuousness.’”</p>
<p>Wouldn’t that have been in response to Obama’s presidential-like seal? I think the seal was universally mocked, and then discarded.</p>
<p>I finally got around to checking out this video (thanks for the link ID) and I find it great! Funny, sarcastic and still Obama’s charisma, humanity and passion for our country come through. He looks and sounds like an energized patriotic leader with a sense of humor who knows how to really connect with crowds. (Check out the guys laughing on stage as he mocks himself.) I don’t know, but the undertone of this ad seems like jealousy on the McCain camp’s part.</p>
<p>Hah! Somone already made a spoof of the ad that flatters Obama. Not really too funny but just goes to show how potentially flattering these ads are.</p>
<p>[YouTube</a> - McCain Thinks Obama is the “One” Ad Parody (Funny)](<a href=“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGLsKzv4SuA]YouTube”>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGLsKzv4SuA)</p>
<p>I believe “likely voters” are people who have voted in primaries over the past several years. These voting records are available to the public (not WHO they voted for, of course, but IF they voted) and can be used to narrow down the field of registered voters to those who are most likely to turn out for upcoming elections. (The rationale being, if they’ve made it a point to vote in a primary election/s, then odds are good that they’ll vote in the GE).</p>
<p>No, if you go to the poll sites you will see that they use different sets of questions & criteria to decide who is a likely voter-- there is not a uniform criteria. Past voting history is only one of a number of factors.</p>
<p>This web site has 7 articles from 2004 exploring the various “likely voter” methodologies: [Mystery</a> Pollster: Likely Voters VI: Still More on Gallup](<a href=“http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/likely_voters_v_1.html]Mystery”>Likely Voters VI: Still More on Gallup – MysteryPollster)</p>
<p>And this page has a 2008 update by the same author ([Mark</a> Blumenthal](<a href=“Pollster”>Pollster))
[Pollster.com:</a> Likely Voters 2008: The Sequel](<a href=“Pollster”>Pollster)</p>
<p>I did look at the last Gallup poll and I felt their analysis was deficient because they failed to ask any questions to elicit voter enthusiasm. I think that’s a huge factor this year, because of lukewarm support for McCain as opposed to the enthusiasm for Obama, together with Obama’s extraordinary level of organization for GOTV activities. I think it goes without saying that people who are enthusiastic about voting for a candidate are more “likely” to show up at the polls than those who feel disappointed about the available choices.</p>
<p>The only numbers that really matter in the end are the electoral votes; fortunately Obama is beating McCain handily when you look at those (projected).</p>
<p>More on the Gallup/USA Today methodology:</p>
<p>Gallup labeled voters as “likely” based on 3 questions: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president – quite a lot, or only a little?</p></li>
<li><p>How often would you say you vote – always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom? </p>
<ol>
<li>Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the presidential election this November, or not? </li>
</ol></li>
</ol>
<p>Their assumption on the first question is that those who have thought a lot about the upcoming election are more likely to vote – but I think it is a flawed assumption without more information. For one thing, the election is months away; for another, I think those who lean strongly one way or another are less likely to be thinking about it it lot. If I know for sure that I will be voting for Obama… what’s to think about? If you combine that with the fact that Obama has a tremendous amount of support from young voters – college age kids who were too young to vote in the last Presidential election – then these criteria will exclude a disproportionate number of Obama supporters from being counted. I also read in another polling article that African-Americans tend to under-report their likelihood of voting – so they are also likely to be excluded in disproportionate numbers by Gallup’s “likely” criteria.</p>
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That is a misnomer. Most are giving McCain a 30% chance to win right now. The Democratic contender should be <em>obliterating</em> him.</p>
<p>The only votes that matter are the ACTUAL votes in November.</p>
<p>If you serch youtube for “obama on your shoulder” you’ll have a good laugh.</p>
<p>Wow! Why isn’t Obama on my shoulder when I head for the refrigerator about 50 times a day? Where is that guy when I need him? :)</p>
<p>You need to put down the BlackBerry and listen for his tiny voice. :D</p>
<p>Here’s how old and out-of-it I am–I don’t even KNOW what a BlackBerry is! I have no room to criticize John McCain and his “googles” and “internets!”</p>
<p>I just bought one - they’re great: [Whatever</a> you need, there’s a BlackBerry for you.](<a href=“http://www.blackberry.com/select/yourchoice/?CPID=KNC-SMD_MultiDevice&HBX_PK=rimggl110377s&HBX_OU=50]Whatever”>http://www.blackberry.com/select/yourchoice/?CPID=KNC-SMD_MultiDevice&HBX_PK=rimggl110377s&HBX_OU=50)</p>
<p>So it’s a computer you can carry in your pocket?</p>