I think it’s not the large donations but the small donations that will dry up.
@“Cardinal Fang” agreed, I think small donations will dry up. I still contend the shocker to everyone will be the loss of personal exemptions. They have purposely touted the doubling of the standard deduction conveniently leaving out the disappearance of exemptions.
“I think it’s not the large donations but the small donations that will dry up.”
Exactly, because big donors will all still itemize due to all the deductions the very wealthy will be able to take, versus the little guy who will not have enough deductions to itemize anymore. That person will only get the standard deduction, regardless if they donate or not - so has no monetary incentive for them to donate anymore.
Agree - many people don’t realize they are going to lose the personal exemptions (I read a conservative website and I’ve been seeing how little most of them understand about the tax bill.) Unfortunately, they are going to be in for a rude awakening in 2019 when they go to do their taxes.
They don’t understand the effect of Chained CPI will have on their taxes either.
It honestly never occurred to me before this last couple of months that I needed/was due a tax break on my passthrough income from my S-corp. I thought a far more likely tax code change would be to add social security taxes to some or all of the passthrough income (maybe up to the dollar amount where normal W-2 salary is taxed). So I just figured a tax overhaul would end up with an increase for that reason, and I am okay with that change.
I didn’t want or need a break on my S-corp passthrough taxes. This is really all about greed.
70% of people don’t itemize. They don’t care if their donations are deductible, so their behavior probably won’t change.
Of the 30% that do itemize, around 10-15% will still itemize, so their tax incentive to donate still exists. Although the top rate has dropped, so will that make large donators less likely to donate? I hope not.
So that leaves around 15-20% of people who will no longer be able to deduct their charitable donations. I know I personally don’t really consider the tax ramifications when I donate, I hope that is pretty normal.
The groups getting the $3.5T in increase are not separate from the groups getting the $5T decrease. There is tremendous overlap, and most of us see both. You might lose money from the elimination of exemptions, but gain from the larger deductions and child tax credits. You might lose SALT deductions but gain from the lower individual rate. Pretending there is one group doing all the giving and another doing all the taking is just more divisive rabble rousing.
"The Senate specifically wrote in the spending bill that the tax bill could not increase the deficit more than $1.5 Trillion. They chose that figure and crafted the bill so it wouldn’t exceed more than the $1.5 so they could pass it under reconciliation.
The tax bill cuts taxes on corporations and the wealthy by $5 Trillion and increases taxes on everyone else by $3.5 Trillion - leaving a deficit of $1.5 Trillion.
The bottom line is that these tax cuts are not fully paid for and will increase the deficit. "
Have you even gone back and looked at Congresses’ numbers vs what actually happened? It’s all a mirage. Show me one time, just one, where what they “predicted” numbers wise actually was close. They are so wrong, so often, they make weathermen look good.
" I still contend the shocker to everyone will be the loss of personal exemptions. They have purposely touted the doubling of the standard deduction conveniently leaving out the disappearance of exemptions."
But you also have to include the reduction in rates too. That can make up a lot of the difference. All you need to do is figure out what your historical real tax rate has been after all the deduction nonsense, and compare with the rates/brackets now. Probably 80% will be break even or better. 20% may get nicked a bit.
I will take the word of these eminent economists over yours.
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2
In addition, there was a reason Reagan had to raise taxes 11 times during his time in office after his tax cuts were enacted.
This bill is going to be a disaster for our economy.
Of course, if the predictions turn out to be overly optimistic, the actual increase in the deficit could be a lot worse than $1.5 trillion over the next decade.
I’m not worried about getting nicked, @yourmomma, because you’re paying my nick. Thanks. Actually, though, I live in a high property value area in a high tax state, so it could be more than a nick. But that’s all right. I won’t feel guilty about taking you up on your generous offer.
"Of course, if the predictions turn out to be overly optimistic, the actual increase in the deficit could be a lot worse than $1.5 trillion over the next decade. "
Yep and a million other things could come into play. Trying to predict the future is a dubious business.
"I will take the word of these eminent economists over yours.
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2
In addition, there was a reason Reagan had to raise taxes 11 times during his time in office after his tax cuts were enacted.
This bill is going to be a disaster for our economy."
Those guys need to get out and get real jobs. What is their track record? Probably pretty bad. If you could predict the future you would be wealthy beyond belief.
And if I had a dollar for every time someone said something would be a “disaster for our economy” I would be wealthy beyond belief. Kind of like all the experts who predicted the economy would “tank” after the last election.
Same as above:
It’s not gonna change the outcome but:
Again, this is not normal.
This is not carefully considered policy.
So why then are you doing it? Why do you prattle about who will get tax cuts, when trying to predict the future is a dubious business?
I think the Democrats should hold the spending bill hostage in order to stop this farce. “Give us a properly considered and well-drafted bill or watch the government shut down on your watch.”
Why so angry? Why so disrespectful?
If you can’t discuss this in a respectful manner maybe you need to step away. Your blood pressure would probably thank you.
Who do you think wins the public opinion battle if they did this (if they even can, doesn’t the budget just require a majority vote?)?
I don’t think the Democrats would come out on top.
What the heck to you mean, why am I so angry?
I’M FURIOUS BECAUSE CONGRESS IS PASSING A BILL THAT STUFFS THE POCKETS OF THEMSELVES AND THEIR DONORS. This is looting.
A better question is, why are you not angry?