My understanding is that it works like so…
States are given a certain number of spots based on each state’s percentage of HS juniors / graduates (not sure which). So if California has 12% of juniors nationwide, then it also gets 12% of the 16,000 Semi-finalist spots.
The state then looks at the scores, and the cutoff is set so it most closely matches the number of spots the state is allowed. So, for example, if a state is allowed 300 NMSF statewide, and 212 would give them 508 SF and 213 would give them 321, then their cutoff is probably going to be 213, and they’ll end up cutting 21 students.
Some of the students won’t complete the app, aren’t citizens, have been suspended, etc., but some will be cut because their grades aren’t good enough. How tough the state is on things like semester Cs will depend on how many spots they have to cut to hit their number.
Note: I am way less of an expert on these things than lots of other posters here, so it’s possible that I don’t have this right.
Also, re: cutoffs - Art says that he doesn’t think there’s much chance at all, anywhere, for a 224. He thinks there might be a natural ceiling somewhere around the 222 / 223 mark. Even so, he says he can’t rule out 224 completely because he only has one year of data to work with, which doesn’t give him enough statistical certainty to say 224 is impossible.