I would have thought that Townsend had a great shot because his work is outstanding; but lately the Nobel committee has been turning away from general equilibrium models to embrace the new sexy. The Clark medal at one time was considered to be a predictor but not sure that’s true anymore since they give it out every year now. Esther Duflo won both but she’s unusually young to be winning a Nobel and I’m really not sure of the relevance of her work with Banerchee, ,though admittedly I know very little about RCT. It sounds intriguing but I would worry about the ethics. Anyway, it’s the new sexy.