Maybe the Nobel Committee this year will swing back to award some old guys. I always feel bad for Neil Wallace that he didn’t get it with Tom Sargent. So I hope he gets it this year with Barro (who might have been too controversial in my days but by now I hope everyone has mellowed out towards him). Or earlier quant guys like David Kreps and Jose Scheinkman. Or some really old guy like Dale Jorgenson.
My weak spot is for Michael Jensen. I read a fair amount of his empirical work when I was in GSB. From my limited (and of course biased) understanding he was the pioneer to bring some serious work in financial economics to HBS. But he had been out of academia for a while. So his chance is as good as Sandy Grossman’s, which means very slim.