<p>^^^^
So we have provided over 600 million in energy assistance to a country that has continually threatened us with a nuclear attack? Seriously, I mean our national deficit is now making sense to me. I am now thinking it is the U.S. that is seriously unstable.</p>
<p>China doesn’t exactly need a distraction to act on Taiwan, and they’re pretty POed at NK. I also don’t see China acting on the Senkaku Islands without reasonable cause, they have no incentive to do so. They can skulk around and make their presence known without violence.</p>
<p>NK is more comical than anything else.</p>
<p>I’m concerned about NK. They wouldn’t be the only country in history to use war as an attempt to get out of their despicable condition. And, the nuclear bomb is a great equalizer. Some of this comes down to - do you believe the dictator in charge (I don’t consider him a leader) is sensible and will only act in the best interests of his people? Do you trust this dictator to ‘do the right thing’?</p>
<p>Don’t forget that NK and SK are basically just in a truce so I wouldn’t be surprised if NK at least made more and more threats against SK. Seoul is well within range of artillery attack from NK.</p>
<p>I’m not paranoid about the situation but I wouldn’t flippantly brush it off either - I think there are some real possible threats.</p>
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I know many people on CC find the thought of reading Fox news abhorrent but they’ve been covering this situation quite regularly including in their lead headline for numerous days. You might want to check them out for more info on this.</p>
<p>Maybe it all seems funny or comical to people in the U.S., but even though it’s clear that North Korea would lose any war, they could kill a great many South Korean civilians – hundreds of thousands, possibly – just within the first day or two; look on a map to see how close Seoul is to the DMZ, and look up how much artillery North Korea has trained on the South. Even apart from their ability to reach both South Korea and Japan with nuclear weapons.</p>
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<p>Then why has the South Korean government launched propaganda campaigns to increase favoritism towards reunification and this president and past ones publicly favor and work for reunification?? The majority of South Koreans still favors reunification- it is really in the younger folk that the idea is less favorable. Yes, it would come with a heavy economic burden, BUT North Korea actually has incredible untapped natural resources- the mineral resources there have been valued at at least $6 trillion, greater than any estimates of the cost of reunification. If anyone opposes reunification, it would be China- A reunified and stronger Korean peninsula would make China lose investments as North Korea has really almost become a satellite country to China. </p>
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<p>Our government does NOT support Taiwan’s independence and supports the reunification of Taiwan with China.
It is really a dispute over oil and those islands are in close proximity to South Korea and again, China would be at war with their big trading partner and would lose too much money and economic investments over such a war, including with Japan too. China has also had the same dispute with the Philippines in some small area in the South China Sea and that “action” turned out to be nothing.</p>
<p>For those who believe that China has too much to lose to get involved, remeber that they have a NATO-esque defense treaty with North Korea that obigates them to act if NK is attacked…
The conventional wisdom was that China wouldn’t get involved in 1950 either and then 300,000 troops crossed the Yalu River…</p>
<p><a href=“China Defense Mashup | China Military News, Photos and Videos”>China Defense Mashup | China Military News, Photos and Videos;
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<p>They are actually called the Diaoyu Tai islands and it’s actually a three-way dispute. Both the Mainland and The ROC(Taiwan) use that name for their claim on those islands against Japan. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the main reason why the US mass media uses the Senkaku Islands name is because they side with Japan because they are a regional ally…even though it is like a close friend covering up a theft by a close friend. </p>
<p>Moreover, it is interesting how the origins of Japan’s claims coincided around the same time Japan started their rampaging conquests which created very Imperial Japanese Empire that ended up ravaging East/SE Asia and the Pacific and contributed to the worst wide-ranging war of the 20th century. </p>
<p>One may want to read other perspectives such as the following legal thesis on the issue:</p>
<p><a href=“http://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/bitstream/10092/4085/1/thesis_fulltext.pdf[/url]”>http://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/bitstream/10092/4085/1/thesis_fulltext.pdf</a></p>
<p>Moreover, this is very similar to the Dokdo/Takeshima Island dispute between South Korea and Japan…except South Korea stationed military forces on the Island since the 1950’s and is ready to resist any Japanese attempts to occupy that island.</p>
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<p>Difference was that in the beginning of the Korean War in 1950, the Communist Chinese government had barely been in power for a year and had some legitimate fears that the US/Allies may support the Chinese Nationalist government in retaking the mainland and defeating the CCP government. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that some fighting between the CCP and the Chinese Nationalists was still going on in isolated pockets in the Southeast, south, and some off-shore islands on the eastern coast close to Taiwan. </p>
<p>From the CCP’s perspective, North Korea was vital to serve as a buffer state between it and US/South Korean forces. </p>
<p>There may also be an anti-Japanese element in this as most of the officers of the South Korean military forces of that time served with the Imperial Japanese Armed forces or one of their collaborationist armies in Manchuria just 5 years before. One good example of this was Park Chung Hee who ruled as South Korean dictator from 1961-79.</p>
<p>That perception of imminent threat which was real to the CCP in 1950-53 is no longer present nowadays. </p>
<p>Not to mention the fact the CCP has substantial economic ties with South Korea, the US, and even Japan. Heck…even Russia is getting into the act considering they’ve sold a bunch of their most modern APCs in exchange for some debt forgiveness in the last decade.</p>
<p>Apparently Caroline Kennedy is to be appointed ambassador to Japan any day now. I have a tremendous amount of respect for her, but I suspect this appointment is to return the favor of her early and strong support of Obama. I hope it doesn’t turn out that ambassador to Japan becomes an important position, given NK’s actions, because I don’t know if she has the chops to do serious stuff.</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/world/caroline-kennedy-is-considered-for-japan-ambassador.html[/url]”>http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/world/caroline-kennedy-is-considered-for-japan-ambassador.html</a></p>
<p>I have been following this story . My initial response was to be worried and also concerned that the powers that be seem somewhat casual about it.
I think that this little man is trying to make himself known and trying to seem relevant in the world .
It’s a war of words.
I think he is trying to flex his little hairless muscles and trying to intimidate South Korea…what disturbs me is NK ability to strike SK and even though he is out numbered and out maneuvered, he does have the capacity to inflict harm in SK.
As far as being worried about his missiles being able to hit the USA, maybe their technology isn’t ready , but that doesn’t mean the will isn’t there and he wouldn’t enable another rogue nation to carry out a hit, perhaps via a dirty bomb on a cargo ship.
But I still think he just wants a little attention, money thrown their way and sanctions lifted…and judging by the endless waste in gifts to foreign countries, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the current administration cave and throw him a bone</p>
<p>Just because North Korea would EVENTUALLY get creamed by the US in a war doesn’t mean they couldn’t do a lot of damage first.</p>
<p>Remember all those people that said Iraq would only take a few months? How did that work out for us? Lots of tough words here from people that would be out of the way of the firefight.</p>
<p>And lastly, I throw out this for thought:</p>
<p>Say North Korea does use a nuke… do you think the US would use one (or multiple) in response? Do you REALLY think that’s a guarantee?</p>
<p>Is it possible that North Korea would assess that the US would not use a nuclear weapon on the Korean Peninsula for fear of escalation and collateral damage?</p>
<p>Do I think North Korea will do anything? No… but in recent years they did sink the Cheonan and fired on Yeonpyeong Island. It only takes ONE step that goes too far and tens of thousands of people are killed essentially instantly.</p>
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<p>They don’t need to hit the continental United States to kill a bunch of Americans. There are 28,000 US military members in South Korea; 35,000 in Japan; and more in the Philippines.</p>
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<p>And next, Dennis Rodman will be announced as the new U.S ambassador to North Korea. After all, I’m sure he’s as qualified for the job as she is plus he has a “friend for life” in NK.</p>
<p>Ha, lje62, since when has NK paid any attention to UN sanctions?</p>
<p>I don’t doubt NK ability to inflict harm to Americans either here in the USA or in SK…nor do I think UN sanctions make NK shake in their boots. I think he is trying to make himself seem relevant to the international community and further threats of sanctions worry him somewhat for his own selfish reasons…obviously he doesn’t care any more for the citizens of NK than his father or grandfather did.
It seems like people skim the headlines to see what the chances of a NK missile with a nuclear warhead has of hitting the USA…I see concern, I see mocking the cities he targets ( as in Austin )
What I don’t see is concern that he will find an alternate means of hitting ports in USA via enemies he aligns himself with, such as Iran.</p>
<p>cobrat, I believe I know plenty more about the Senkaku Island dispute than you and 99% of other Americans. Don’t need a lecture</p>
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<p>Considering you are using the name commonly used by the American mass media and those supporting the Japanese position on the disputes, doesn’t sound like it. </p>
<p>Moreover, the Japanese/US position is also looked upon skeptically in other areas of the Asia-Pacific regions…especially by those who remembered Imperial Japanese expansionist tendencies from the late 19th till the mid-20th centuries. </p>
<p>And there’s that LL.M thesis I cited for your perusal which shows that Japan’s position in this dispute is far from being airtight. </p>
<p>When I wrote seminar papers on this topic, I always used “Diaoyu/Senkaku” to show some scholarly objectivity rather than to use one or the other. </p>
<p>The exception to this is when I am citing opinions of one side or another or to make a direct point that not everyone agrees with the name being used because it is a disputed territory. </p>
<p>Especially when the dispute in question is complicated by the fact there are actually three sides in the dispute. </p>
<p>More ironically, up until very recently, it wasn’t the Mainland Chinese who were at the forefront of the issue for the Chinese side, but Chinese nationalists from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Overseas Chinese. Heck…the PRC tried to downplay the issue back in the late '60s/'70s.</p>
<p>I’m just curious when our government realizes NK is extorting us and other countries for aid (that still goes to the dictator and his family/advisors).</p>
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<p>Everyone realizes it. However, the biggest fear everyone has is not necessarily an NK attack…but an NK collapse with all the uncertainties…especially considering nukes are involved. </p>
<p>It’s something the pentagon has been considering as a possible scenario according to some headlines in the last few weeks and one South Koreans and those following events on the Korean peninsula have been talking about for the last 2+ decades. </p>
<p>Many comparisons have been made of the German reunification and its uncertainties/economic dislocations and what may happen with North/South Koreas. </p>
<p>Consensus seems to be that the greater gaps in various areas in the latter case means that the serious economic and social problems Germany encountered with its unification will be a walk in the park compared to the potential Korean case.</p>
<p>I don’t think China intrinsically supports the current regime in North Korea. But it has to be careful to resist any pretext the US may make to collude with South Korea to occupy North Korea. Which would put US troops and assets right up on the Chinese border.</p>
<p>A newsperson was reporting on NK last night (sorry I do not remember the station) and his mocking tone was very inappropriate. His point was that NK is not a threat but his tone was nearly that of a bully.
Keeping face is everything to their culture and it appears that there is a lot of immaturity in the administration–just not necessary to mock.
I do think they are a threat–not for intellectual or historical reasons but because of their pride and lack of understanding what real global politics are about. Also, because clearly the NK administration does not care about their masses.</p>
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<p>And this goes back to the reason why Mainland China originally supported North Korea…because they serve as a useful buffer state against US and to some extent South Korean troops. </p>
<p>Moreover, there’s also a historical dimension to this as China has been historically invaded from the north/northeast. One recent example was the Imperial Japanese Army instigated annexation of Manchuria in 1931. Not too long afterwards it was turned into a Puppet state of Manchukuo…complete with a puppet Emperor the world knows as Pu Yi…the child last emperor of China before the 1911 Revolution. </p>
<p>One factor in the success of that invasion was that Imperial Japanese reinforcements could easily be sent over the Chinese/Korean border. </p>
<p>Moreover, Manchuria was one of the staging grounds for the all-out invasion of the rest of China which sparked the Second Sino-Japanese war in 1937 and later became part of WWII in the CBI/Pacific theaters. </p>
<p>Later on after the Sino-Soviet split in the '60s, there were a series of violent border clashes between Soviet and Chinese Communist troops. </p>
<p>In short…there’s a historical dimension to Mainland Chinese sensitivity regarding perceived threats to their NE/Northern provinces.</p>