I think some here are making this unnecessarily complicated. It doesnt matter to me what synonyms you come up with. What matters is that you have some apps in to colleges most likely to admit you, that you like, that are affordable.
All the considerations of “dreams,” crapshoots, who thinks what students “deserve” more, etc, go out the window. This is CYA, plain and simple. IF other apps fail, what’s your backup?
And yield is not the determinant. You first still need to match, whatever that means to particular colleges. Sure, some will be primarily stats based- have the grades and/or scores, complete the app…check, you’re in!
But other colleges will expect more. Your match beyond stats. You give that to them or you don’t. All of it.
You assume colleges arbitrarily exclude good kids who, from our own limited perspectives, “must have been” perfect applicants. But you don’t know their apps. For all we know, they bumbled through them.
The solution is to carefully build your backup plan, schools you would enjoy/can afford and show you match what they want. Put the heart into it.