<p>Hi Brielle! </p>
<p>You have identified a topic that some of us have been trying to get out of the stranglehold of an interconnected web of professional associations, academics, think tanks and college faculty that actively quashed the truth for at least 3 years and ignored the plight of thousands of new grads.</p>
<p>They are now unable to plug the dyke at this point, but have shifted strategy to alarmist predictions that while plausible, are based on speculation. They are:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>That droves of retired and inactive nurses returned to work during the 2008 financial crisis and soon they will leave again leaving a giant void. </p></li>
<li><p>Millions of people will flood the system due to the enacting of the ACA (Obamacare) and we will need millions of nurses to deal with it.</p></li>
<li><p>The giant Baby Boomer generation is set to become old and infirm very soon and we will need even more nurses.</p></li>
<li><p>(might not be speculation as it involves a quantifiable number)The average age of nurses is rising by the day! I read a few months ago it was 43 yrs, then it was 46 years, now I guess we’re at 50?</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Here are a few things to consider when doing research- never rely on just one non-objective source of information. Be skeptical of all hot-button words like crisis, catastrophe, disaster and grossly inflated numbers resulting in droves, stampedes, mass exodus, etc Ask if they included the burgeoning online degree programs in their analysis. Have they considered the trend of hiring UAP (unlicensed assistive personnel) in their conclusions. Bear in mind that a classified ad doesn’t mean there is an actual job behind it, so it isn’t a good way to evaluate the job market.</p>
<p>Big changes actually take years to materialize, and we have been front-loading the system for long enough that it’s having an impact. Those groups I mentioned are now advising new grads to take on more debt based on a speculative position. If they were all that worried about a shortage they would focus on bridge programs for associate degree nurses. As to the “more qualified students than seats” – isn’t that true of most admission programs for any occupation? I leave you with a quote from the scientist most often used to buttress the looming crisis storyline, Peter Buerhaus in the December 2011 issue of Health Affairs.</p>
<p>“Between 2002 and 2009, however, the number of full-time-equivalent registered nurses ages 23–26 increased by 62 percent. If these young nurses follow the same life-cycle employment patterns as those who preceded them—as they appear to be thus far—then they will be the largest cohort of registered nurses ever observed.”</p>